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1*K4SYmky7gewRPP-qEVK1dA.png
Images of the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS from the Two-Meter Twin Telescope (TTT) and the Transient Survey Telescope (TST) located at Tenerife, Spain (right panels), and the corresponding Laplacian-filtered images (left panels). The observation date, start and end times (UTC), number of sidereal-tracking exposures, and total integration time are indicated above each panel. The projected velocity vector of 3I/ATLAS (red arrow) and the anti-solar direction (yellow arrow) are shown, along with the image scale and orientation. Red cross marks the brightness peak. The direction of the anti-tail and tail are marked by thin red and yellow lines, respectively. Brightness contours of the original image are overplotted on the left panels, using ten logarithmically spaced levels between the 80th and 95th percentiles of the pixel-intensity distribution. The pixel size is 0.60 arcseconds and the field of view is 2.4 by 1.8 degrees. (Image credit: M. Serra-Ricart et al. 2025)

In my latest essay — accessible here, I showed that the characteristic radius of dust particles in the anti-tail from 3I/ATLAS must be much bigger than 1 micron in order for them to reach the observed length of this jet and much smaller than 100 microns in order for them to reach the required jet speed through drag on the outflowing gas. My calculation implies that the anti-tail contains dust particles with a characteristic radius of order 10 microns.

The mass loss rate carried by these dust particles can be estimated from the brightness of glow surrounding 3I/ATLAS.

The total luminosity of the glow around 3I/ATLAS during the month after perihelion is equivalent to the reflection of sunlight from a spherical mirror of 10-kilometers radius, which is a billion (10⁹) times larger than the 10-micron radius of a dust particle. Since area scales as radius squared, there must be (10⁹)²=10^{18} dust particles to yield the total luminosity of scattered sunlight in the glow around 3I/ATLAS. Since the mass of a single 10-micron dust particle is ~10^{-8} grams, the total mass in scattering particles is 10 million kilograms.

The duration over which this mass must be supplied is of order the solar deceleration time of the dust particles, after which the dust is dispersed. For the jet length L=400,000km, and the solar deceleration value of A~0.01cm/s² associated with particle radius of R~10micron, we get a required supply time,

t_supply ~ (2L/A)^{1/2} ~ 1 month = 3 million seconds.

This implies a mass loss rate in 10-micron dust particles of 10 million kilograms in 3 million seconds or ~3.3 kg/s, which is a fraction of 0.7% of the total mass loss rate of gas Mdot~500 kg/s. The dust to-gas ratio in the interstellar medium of the Milky-Way galaxy is similar, of order ~1%, but most of it is in particles with a radius below 1 micron. However, in molecular clouds, larger dust particles with R~10micron are made. This raises the question:

Did 3I/ATLAS originate from a molecular cloud, where it collected 10-micron dust particles on its surface?

The additional anomalies of 3I/ATLAS (listed here) raise other questions about its nature, to which we do not have answers yet. Being honest about what we do not know, would motivate us to seek answers. Those who are not curious about the unknown and fill their mind with pride about what they know, end up being dull.

Below is a delightful correspondence with a young girl who was inspired to become a scientist after viewing one of my interviews. She gives me hope that the next generation of scientists will be better than those who came before them.

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

“Dear Dr Loeb,

We watched your interview video in science class today. I showed my teacher and my friends that you responded to my email. I don’t know what a white letter means? I saw it went to the United Nations and […] they are going to monitor 3I/ATLAS. That’s good but I hope it’s not bad aliens. Only good aliens. Like the little gray aliens. I’m not afraid of them because they are as short like me. Thank you, Dr Loeb. I read your Medium.com articles every day. Have a wonderful week.

Arianna

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Dear Arianna,

I had mentioned you on the Joe Rogan podcast, so you can share it with your class. I hope they will enjoy the podcast which should be available on Spotify and YouTube.

Avi

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

You mentioned me? […] I’ll have to ask my dad if I can watch Joe Rogan. Why isn’t NASA releasing the clear photos of 3I/ATLAS? Something is very fishy, Dr Loeb. My dad says NASA lies to the people like parents lie to their children when they don’t want to tell them the real truth. But kids already know anyway. I’m sure my dad will let me see you on Joe Rogan. I’m so excited to show people at school. Have a wonderful week. Thank you for all you do for bringing the truth to light.

Arianna

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Hey Dr Loeb,

My dad, brother and I watched your Joe Rogan interview and you were great. I can’t believe Joe Rogan didn’t know what Oumuamua was. Our first interstellar object. Or the first one we’ve noticed. I think there have been many more before. I told my science teacher you mentioned me and he told Ms. Graves who does our morning announcements and she told the whole school. It was funny. My dad loves they put you on a race car. Him and my brother love race cars but I just like soccer and science and some math. I have soccer practice now. Have a great weekend.

Arianna

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Dear Arianna,

I also love soccer and science. Glad to hear that we think alike!

Avi

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Really? You play soccer also? That’s so cool. I’m really good. I play right wing and sometimes goalie. But I don’t like being the goalie when it’s cold outside because stopping the ball hurts my fingers. We are going to see 3I/ATLAS again tomorrow, right? And we will know in a few days if it’s aliens or not. I hope it’s not scary aliens. Only the gray ones because they are shorter than me. I wonder if they play games like soccer. I asked dad why we don’t have small AI telescopes in orbit around the Sun but opposite the earth? That way we will never be blind of another visitor again? They can also keep a lookout for asteroids. Same with the moon? If we put telescopes on both sides of the moon from our viewpoint then we can send probes to the far side of the moon without losing contact. I’m making a list of things we need. They can probably be very small so they won’t be expensive. I can probably go to Home Depot and get everything to make it. I just don’t know how to make it stay in one place without flying away. Maybe we find a balance from the moon’s gravity and the earth and then it won’t move. Because they are so small we can get them in space with tiny rockets. I think small is important. I have to go to bed. I’m glad you like soccer. Maybe we can teach the aliens to play.

Arianna

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Thank you, Arianna. Here is an essay with my photo playing soccer:

https://avi-loeb.medium.com/does-3i-atlas-generate-its-own-light-e9775594afc5

Happy Thanksgiving!

Avi

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Hey Dr Loeb,

I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I love macaroni and cheese so I had a lot of that. I know you are very busy because I read your Medium.com post and watch your TV and podcast interviews. Why am I seeing legitimate amateur astronomer’s uploading photos that are way more detailed than the silly NASA images. They just make me mad and not even want to be interested because they tell lies. I get in a lot of trouble when I lie but they don’t.

My soccer team won first place and we got trophies. That was really cool.

Happy holidays and I hope you have a blessed new year with great achievements.

Arianna

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Wonderful to hear from you, Arianna.

I am delighted to hear that your soccer team won first place. You won first place in my heart long ago and I hope you will become a scientist and solve many of the mysteries that my generation and NASA failed to solve.

Avi

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Hi Dr Loeb!

It’s Arianna. I’ve been reading all of your published papers on Medium. I love when I get home from school and I see new papers. I got all A’s in school except one B in French. That’s a difficult language for me. Plus, my teacher is from Paris and she is difficult to understand. I got a perfect 100 in science. […] My dad flew F-22s […] I hope you and your family have a wonderful Holiday season. And happy Hanukkah. I have a friend who celebrates Hanukkah and she gets presents every day for a long time. That’s cool! Okay, I got a RC F-22 aircraft and we are going to my school soccer field to fly it. I told my dad I wanted to be a girl F-22 pilot but he said he thinks all planes will be autonomous when I get big so then I want to be a scientist. He said AI might have those jobs also. But I’m smarter than AI. They only know what we teach them and I won’t tell them everything.

Bye

Arianna

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Hi Arriana,

Great to hear from you. You should aim to become a scientist because — as your father says — planes will be piloted by AI, but science will not. Today, I met with someone who used AI to propose a new theory of gravity. He worked on it for years, but I showed him that his theory is ruled out in a few minutes. I told him that natural intelligence is better than artificial intelligence.

For now, keep excelling in soccer and studies. You sound just like me when I was your age!

Avi

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

1*LE3Xlzc3hNG5VDAGlDP8KQ.jpeg
(Image Credit: Chris Michel, National Academy of Sciences, 2023)

Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.

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      Assuming a bulk density of 0.5 gram per cubic centimeter and ζ = 0.5, we estimate the diameter of 3I/ATLAS to be 0.84 kilometers for the CO2-driven sublimation, and 1.48 kilometers or 2.3 kilometers for the low (model B) or high (model A) limit of water sublimation.
      Minimum radius (half-diameter) of the nucleus of 3I/ATLAS, required to sustain the observed production rate of gas with the entire surface being active. The solid lines correspond to various outgassing models and the dotted lines are the corresponding lower limits for the radius of 3I/ATLAS based on its non-gravitational acceleration. (Image Credit: V. Thoss, A. Loeb and A. Burkert 2026)We derive an additional constraint on the size of 3I/ATLAS by considering the surface required to sustain the sublimation. Under the most conservative assumptions, this leads to a strong tension for the model with high values of water production, requiring a diameter larger than 3 kilometers compared to the maximum value of 2.3 kilometers based on the corresponding non-gravitational acceleration. The high sublimation rate would therefore require a nucleus size that is too large to be compatible with the non-gravitational effect, even under extreme assumptions. This rules out model A and the corresponding mass and nucleus size, while the more conservative model B with lower levels of water production produces a mild tension, which could be alleviated by a lower bulk density or higher ejection velocity. This also implies that the sublimation of water (H2O) from the surface of 3I/ATLAS likely does not significantly exceed that from carbon dioxide (CO2). On the other hand, the bounds for a model which only includes CO2-sublimation is compatible with the non-gravitational estimates of the nucleus size.
      The constraints from the active fraction suggest that the rocket effect of 3I/ATLAS might be dominated by CO2 sublimation throughout the orbit, with negligible contribution from water production. In this case the nucleus has an effective diameter of 0.8 kilometers, inconsistently with the Hubble data analysis that provided 2.6 (± 0.4) kilometers. Only if the production rates of CO2 have been underestimated by about an order of magnitude, could the two estimates be reconciled. If on the other hand water sublimation does contribute to the rocket effect of 3I/ATLAS, then the nucleus size would be larger. In this case, a lower than usual comet density together with larger gas velocities and collimation of the outflow could potentially push the estimated diameter as high as 2.2 kilometers, resolving the tension with the Hubble estimate and the required active fraction.
      Additional data on the production rates of water and carbon dioxide would help to narrow down the range of possibilities and improve estimates of the mass and size of 3I/ATLAS.
      But irrespective of the uncertainties, one conclusion is beyond any reasonable doubt: the third interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is at least 5 orders of magnitude more massive than the first interstellar object 1I/`Oumuamua — whose final mass was estimated to be of order 10⁷ kilograms here and here, assuming a natural origin for it as a hydrogen or a nitrogen iceberg without a visible cometary tail.
      Based on the statistics of asteroids and comet nuclei of various sizes in the Solar System, we should have detected at least a hundred thousand 1I/`Oumuamua-mass objects before discovering a single interstellar object with the mass of 3I/ATLAS.
      Does this discrepancy mean that one or both of these two mysterious interstellar objects is not natural in origin?
      ABOUT THE AUTHOR
      (Image Credit: Chris Michel, National Academy of Sciences, 2023)Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.
      Professional website:
      https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/
      Social media:
      https://avi-loeb.medium.com/
      https://www.youtube.com/@ProfessorAviLoeb
      https://open.spotify.com/show/1zhndXkvSY2b8FdjspFpCd
      https://x.com/ProfAviLoeb
      View the full article
    • By Avi Loeb Medium
      A Hubble Space Telescope image of 3I/ATLAS (Image Credit: NASA, ESA, STScI, D. Jewitt (UCLA), M.-T. Hui (Shanghai Astronomical Observatory))In a new paper (accessible here), I show that the recently inferred radius and interstellar number density of 3I/ATLAS-like objects, imply a local mass density that is larger by orders of magnitude than the available reservoir of heavy elements locked in low metallicity stars. This association was suggested by recent isotope abundance measurements. Either the inferred radius or number density are overestimated or the association with metal-poor stars is incorrect.
      The interstellar object 3I/ATLAS offers new insights into the mass reservoir of planetary systems across the Milky-Way galaxy. The latest data from the Hubble Space Telescope (reported here), was used to derive a nucleus radius of R_n = 1.3 ± 0.2 km and an interstellar number density of n ∼ 7 × 10^{−3} au^{−3} (where au is the Earth-Sun separation).
      For a typical nucleus density of ρ_n ≈ 0.5 g/cm^3, the inferred radius implies a nucleus mass of m_n ≈ (4π[R_n]^3ρ_n/3) = 4.6×10^{15} g. Hence, the local interstellar mass density of the population of 3I/ATLAS-like objects is,
      ρ_{3I} ≈n×m_n =10^{−26} g/cm^3
      Two recent papers (posted here and here) reported anomalous isotope abundances in the material that makes 3I/ATLAS. Based on JWST observations, Cordiner et al. (2026) had found
      an isotope composition unlike any Solar System body. The water in 3I/ATLAS is enriched in deuterium at a level of D/H = (0.95 ± 0.06) percent, which is an order of magnitude higher than in known comets, suggesting a metal-poor origin. In addition, the 12C/13C isotope ratios (141–191 for CO2 and 123–172 for CO) exceeds typical values found in the Solar System, as well as in nearby proto-planetary disks. Chemical evolution models imply that the carbon isotopic composition originated 10–12 billion years ago. A similar conclusion was reached by Opitom et al. (2026), who reported measurements of carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in 3I/ATLAS from observations of the cyanide (CN) molecule by the VLT. This data suggests a 12C/13C ratio of 147 (+87/−40) and a 14N/15N ratio of 343(+454/-124), more than twice above the value of ∼ 150 usually measured for Solar System comets.
      Below, I show that a low-metallicity origin for 3I/ATLAS generates untenable tension with the inferred mass budget of the 3I/ATLAS population of interstellar objects.
      The Galactic orbit of 3I/ATLAS suggest a likely origin in the disk of the Milky-Way galaxy. The composition of the coma of 3I/ATLAS in terms of carbon, oxygen and nitrogen — based molecules, implies that most of its mass is associated with heavy elements.
      For reference, the Galactic mass density of stars in the neighborhood of the Sun is,
      ρ_⋆ ≈ 0.04M_⊙ pc^{−3} = 2.7 × 10^{−24} g/cm^3
      Only a tenth of all stars in the Milky-Ways disk have metallicities below a tenth of the solar value. Considering those metal-poor stars as the suggested source population of 3I/ATLAS and adopting their metal mass fraction to be ∼ 2 × 10−3, we find the corresponding local mass density of heavy elements in them to be,
      ρ_z ≈2×10^{−3}×0.1×ρ_⋆ =5.4×10^{−28} g/cm^3
      Since ρ_z ∼ 0.05ρ_{3I}, we conclude that the total mass density of heavy elements locked in low-metallicity stars is more than an order of magnitude below the required mass density in interstellar objects like 3I/ATLAS.
      Planetary systems — which serve as the natural birth sites of interstellar objects — originate from debris disks that contain at least ten times less mass than the host star. In addition, one expects a mass spectrum of ejected inter- stellar objects to contain at least ten times more mass in objects with masses that are orders of magnitude different from that of 3I/ATLAS. When these additional factors are included, we find that low-metallicity stars miss the required mass budget by at least 3 orders of magnitude. They cannot account for the interstellar population of 3I/ATLAS-like objects unless they are capable of ejecting to interstellar space more than a thousand times the heavy-element content of their planetary disks.
      In conclusion, either the inferred radius or number density of the population of 3I/ATLAS-like objects are overestimated or their association with metal-poor stars is incorrect.
      ABOUT THE AUTHOR
      (Image Credit: Chris Michel, National Academy of Sciences, 2023)Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.
      Professional website:
      https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/
      Social media:
      https://avi-loeb.medium.com/
      https://www.youtube.com/@ProfessorAviLoeb
      https://open.spotify.com/show/1zhndXkvSY2b8FdjspFpCd
      https://x.com/ProfAviLoeb
      View the full article
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