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The Mass of 3I/ATLAS is About a Billion Metric Tons, at Least a Hundred Thousand Times That of 1I/`Oumuamua

1*-FHI_2VcyLoSX8cUpoEZcg.png
Observational data on the evolution of the mass loss rate of 3I/ATLAS dM/dt in various gasses: H2O (blue), OH (orange) and CO2 (green). The colored dashed-lines show various models for the mass loss rate. The solid pink and red curves display two preferred models to describe the combined total emission rate from water and carbon dioxide. The gray dotted line illustrates a previous model, favored in interpreting the rocket effect based on Hubble Space Telescope data (as reported here). (Image Credit: V. Thoss, A. Loeb and A. Burkert 2026)

A new paper (accessible here) that I just co-authored with the brilliant Valentin Thoss and Andi Burkert from the University Observatory Munich, provides the best assessment to date of the mass of the mysterious interstellar object 3I/ATLAS.

As I discussed here on October 31, 2025, the rocket equation can be used to evaluate the non-gravitational force acting on 3I/ATLAS. The mass of 3I/ATLAS, M, times its non-gravitational acceleration, A, should be equal to the excess mass loss in a preferred direction, ζdM/dt, times the ejection velocity of the outflowing material, V,

M×A = (ζdM/dt) × V .

This provides a way to measure the mass 3I/ATLAS. By measuring the acceleration A and the mass-loss rate dM/dt and by modeling the velocity V, it is possible to derive the mass M of 3I/ATLAS for a reasonable value of the outflow asymmetry-parameter ζ ~0.5.

The new paper uses all available observational data on the evolution of the production rate of gas and dust and the brightening of 3I/ATLAS during the months surrounding its close approach to the Sun on October 29, 2025. The outgassing from the nucleus has led to a detectable non-gravitational acceleration. Our analysis combines models for the mass loss rate of water (H2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) to derive the non-gravitational force and estimate the mass and size of 3I/ATLAS. In addition, we take into account a conservative constraint on the nucleus size from the active surface required for sublimation. If the mass loss is dominated by the sublimation of CO2, then the nucleus diameter is 0.84 kilometers, assuming a mass density of 0.5 grams per cubic centimeter and an asymmetry-parameter ζ ~0.5. Strong water sublimation of up to 10 metric tons per second from the surface is ruled out, as the required cometary surface area is incompatible with the rocket effect. A more conservative model of water production suggests a nucleus radius of 0.74 kilometer. In this case, a lower than usual cometary density or larger outgassing velocity could make the nucleus size estimate compatible with the lower bound of Hubble Space Telescope data of 2.6 (± 0.4) kilometers (as reported here).

Our analysis adopted three parameterizations: a purely CO2-driven sublimation which scales inversely with the square of the distance to the Sun, and two models accounting
for the contribution from water sublimation. These two models were fitted to the highest (model A) and lowest (model B) reported production rates, encompassing the range of uncertainty. By combining these models with data on the motion of 3I/ATLAS in the sky, we have estimated its mass and size. There is a subtle statistical preference towards the CO2 model with an inverse-square scaling, which becomes pronounced when we only include the data from large telescopes and interplanetary spacecraft. Despite systematic uncertainties, the magnitude of the non-gravitational acceleration can be estimated quite robustly.

The derived mass of 3I/ATLAS is (M/ζ)= 0.3 × 10^{12} kilograms for a CO2-only model, where ζ is the outgassing asymmetry factor. Including the contribution from water sublimation, we obtain (M/ζ)= 1.7 × 10^{12} kilograms and (M/ζ) = 6.4 × 10^{12} kilograms for the low and high limit of water sublimation from the nucleus. All in all, the mass of 3I/ATLAS is of order a billion metric tons!

Assuming a bulk density of 0.5 gram per cubic centimeter and ζ = 0.5, we estimate the diameter of 3I/ATLAS to be 0.84 kilometers for the CO2-driven sublimation, and 1.48 kilometers or 2.3 kilometers for the low (model B) or high (model A) limit of water sublimation.

1*gu97AJyTer2sdsB5JB0I8g.png
Minimum radius (half-diameter) of the nucleus of 3I/ATLAS, required to sustain the observed production rate of gas with the entire surface being active. The solid lines correspond to various outgassing models and the dotted lines are the corresponding lower limits for the radius of 3I/ATLAS based on its non-gravitational acceleration. (Image Credit: V. Thoss, A. Loeb and A. Burkert 2026)

We derive an additional constraint on the size of 3I/ATLAS by considering the surface required to sustain the sublimation. Under the most conservative assumptions, this leads to a strong tension for the model with high values of water production, requiring a diameter larger than 3 kilometers compared to the maximum value of 2.3 kilometers based on the corresponding non-gravitational acceleration. The high sublimation rate would therefore require a nucleus size that is too large to be compatible with the non-gravitational effect, even under extreme assumptions. This rules out model A and the corresponding mass and nucleus size, while the more conservative model B with lower levels of water production produces a mild tension, which could be alleviated by a lower bulk density or higher ejection velocity. This also implies that the sublimation of water (H2O) from the surface of 3I/ATLAS likely does not significantly exceed that from carbon dioxide (CO2). On the other hand, the bounds for a model which only includes CO2-sublimation is compatible with the non-gravitational estimates of the nucleus size.

The constraints from the active fraction suggest that the rocket effect of 3I/ATLAS might be dominated by CO2 sublimation throughout the orbit, with negligible contribution from water production. In this case the nucleus has an effective diameter of 0.8 kilometers, inconsistently with the Hubble data analysis that provided 2.6 (± 0.4) kilometers. Only if the production rates of CO2 have been underestimated by about an order of magnitude, could the two estimates be reconciled. If on the other hand water sublimation does contribute to the rocket effect of 3I/ATLAS, then the nucleus size would be larger. In this case, a lower than usual comet density together with larger gas velocities and collimation of the outflow could potentially push the estimated diameter as high as 2.2 kilometers, resolving the tension with the Hubble estimate and the required active fraction.

Additional data on the production rates of water and carbon dioxide would help to narrow down the range of possibilities and improve estimates of the mass and size of 3I/ATLAS.

But irrespective of the uncertainties, one conclusion is beyond any reasonable doubt: the third interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is at least 5 orders of magnitude more massive than the first interstellar object 1I/`Oumuamua — whose final mass was estimated to be of order 10⁷ kilograms here and here, assuming a natural origin for it as a hydrogen or a nitrogen iceberg without a visible cometary tail.

Based on the statistics of asteroids and comet nuclei of various sizes in the Solar System, we should have detected at least a hundred thousand 1I/`Oumuamua-mass objects before discovering a single interstellar object with the mass of 3I/ATLAS.

Does this discrepancy mean that one or both of these two mysterious interstellar objects is not natural in origin?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

1*LE3Xlzc3hNG5VDAGlDP8KQ.jpeg
(Image Credit: Chris Michel, National Academy of Sciences, 2023)

Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.

Professional website:

https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/

Social media:

https://avi-loeb.medium.com/
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfessorAviLoeb

https://open.spotify.com/show/1zhndXkvSY2b8FdjspFpCd
https://x.com/ProfAviLoeb

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      ***
      Jeanne Calment of France is the oldest verified person to have ever lived. She died in 1997 at an age of 122.45 years. This is a hundred million times shorter than the age of the Universe. One would expect the fact that we live for less than 0.00000001 of cosmic history to sink in and make us humble. But not so. We prefer to ignore it.
      Even though our life is brief, we choose to invest most of it in conflicts with each other. Out there in the sky, there is a giant cosmic message telling us how insignificant we are. And yet, even mainstream astronomers who adopt the job of looking up, maintain the arrogant view that we might be at the top of the cosmic food chain and that the quest for extraterrestrial technological civilizations is an extraordinary claim that should be sidelined in favor of the search for microbes. How else can one interpret the top priority of the Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Survey to invest more than 10 billion dollars in the search for microbes and no federal funding in the search for extraterrestrial intelligent beings?
      Given the dismal brevity of our cosmic existence, we get comfort from the assumption that the we must be surrounded by lower life forms.
      I reject this popular view within present-day academia. Out of a sense of cosmic modesty, I define my goal throughout the remainder of my scientific career to seek evidence for a more accomplished sibling of our family of intelligent civilizations. If such evidence will be found, the next Copernican revolution would be that we are not at the intellectual center of the Universe.
      ***
      Before my morning jog at sunrise, I had received the following uplifting email from the Finnish artist, Antti Railio:
      “Hello Mr. Loeb.
      My name is Antti Railio, I am a Finnish singer/artist. I have been following your work for few years now and I am really happy to see a scientist who practices real science with the correct attitude towards it.
      I also have had an interest on the UAP/UFO phenomenon since the 1990’s since I have witnessed along with other people the phenomenon of bright orbs up upon the ocean here in Finland in my home town of Kristiinankaupunki.
      Also, I had an experience when I was a child which left me with 7 Stiches on my left palm…
      Well, that is beside my letter to you…
      I wanted to write to you, since I am not a scientist, but I have a curious mind, and it seems I tend to have Ideas or theories that time and time again seems to be after sometimes decades validated by scientists.
      For example, I had a theory that our universe might be inside a black hole and possibly the multiverse is like a bunch of soup bubbles. I had this idea 20 years ago… And since few years ago I read that this is now a well thought theory…
      I also have had a theory that life on earth had its origins somewhere else possibly the same life source that has been spread through the universe by panspermia. And I somehow am almost certain that this is the case.
      Anyway, my main reason for contacting you is this new theory I have… I just had an idea a few days ago popped to my brain!
      What would you think of this? You know the theory of white holes being the theorized flip sides of a black whole, but that we have not yet been able to seen or proven their existence ones…
      My theory is this: We are all made of the same material that exists inside the Sun as they say and Sun gives us life and illuminates the whole solar system…
      What if stars are the other side of a black holes, a reverse singularity! If I am not wrong a black hole appears in 3-dimensional space as a sphere?
      So my theory is that one of the reasons the Sun’s temperature is far more greater farther from its surface, is also driven by the forces pushing through the matter from a far distant black whole that is at the same time at the other side of the sun, so that it is occupying basically the same space as the Sun and at the same time it is connecting our solar system with another one somewhere where the black hole resides… Also the black hole’s immense gravitation would keep the sun at its form, but since it is constantly feeding in from the other side it has to disperse the energy gradually away thus the heat and photons would then be the Sun’s source of light and energy…
      The immense gravitation would still bleed through its presence over to this side keeping the planets locked in their places…
      Also, that would make sense in another theory connecting to UAP…
      It would make sense that higher beings would be aware of this and could use stars as a map of “jump points” to travel vast distances by using portals created by the universe…
      You know, sometimes the obvious is hiding right in front of our eyes… ;)
      That is my newest theory but I lack the scientific knowhow to even start to calculate the mathematics or the more technical sides of this theory, so I leave it to you as a fun theory or perhaps something to be thinking about … :)
      With the most respect and admiration
      Thank you so much for your time!
      Also, I am super excited about your Galileo Project! And secretly wish to grow up and start my scientific career. But maybe I am better at singing and performing…
      Yours truly!
      -Antti Railio”
      My response was as follows:
      “Dear Antti,
      Thank you for reaching out to me and for your kind words.
      Your idea about panspermia might very well be correct. For the latest update, see my essay from last week:
      https://avi-loeb.medium.com/impact-survival-of-microbes-highlights-the-feasibility-of-panspermia-45b7c6bc78dd
      It is possible that our Universe is embedded inside a black hole but we have no evidence for that. A black hole is characterized by a singularity at its venter (a place where the curvature of spacetime diverges), very different from the nearly uniform conditions in the observable volume of the Universe.
      Regarding the Sun and other stars: we can explain their properties, including their internal structure — which is probed by sound waves, as a result of nuclear fusion being their source of energy. Once they consume their nuclear fuel, they die and we see their remnants in the forms of white dwarfs (for Sun-like stars), neutron stars and black holes (for stars more massive than 8 solar masses). A white hole was conjectured as the source of energy for quasars or gamma-ray bursts, but these sources of light are well explained by a model involving the infall of matter into a black hole.
      Keep up with your creative work.
      Avi”
      ABOUT THE AUTHOR
      (Image Credit: Chris Michel, National Academy of Sciences, 2023)Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.
      Professional website:
      https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/
      Social media:
      https://avi-loeb.medium.com/
      https://www.youtube.com/@ProfessorAviLoeb
      https://open.spotify.com/show/1zhndXkvSY2b8FdjspFpCd
      https://x.com/ProfAviLoeb
      View the full article
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