Jump to content

Q&A About 3I/ATLAS, a Week Before Its Closest Approach to Jupiter

Avi Loeb Medium
 Share

Recommended Posts

Avi Loeb Medium Newbie

Avi Loeb Medium

Posted
Posted
1*89zcRbCdVPehaXc3O6xqPg.png
A symmetric structure of a sunward anti-tail plus three equally-separated jets is apparent near the nucleus of 3I/ATLAS, after applying the Larson-Sekanina rotational gradient filter to two exposures by the Hubble Space Telescope on 2025–12–27. (Image Credit: T. Scarmato and A. Loeb 2026).

After a four-hour interview with AJ Gentile in Las Vegas yesterday, I returned to Boston at midnight and before my morning jog — I answered the following set of questions from a journalist about the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS:

- You previously estimated the likelihood that 3I/ATLAS is the creation of an alien civilization. A large body of observational data has now been accumulated. Has this probability increased or decreased?

When 3I/ATLAS was discovered in July 2025, I gave it a rank of 4 on the Loeb Classification scale of interstellar objects (defined here), where 0 means a natural comet and 10 means alien technology that poses a major threat to humanity. 3I/ATLAS displayed rare geometric anomalies. Its trajectory was leading towards the inner solar system, within 5 degrees of the orbial plane of the planets around the Sun, and with a rotation axis that is nearly aligned with the direction of the Sun. It also featured a prominent anti-tail in the direction of the Sun rather than a commonly observed cometary tail of dust and gas pushed away by the solar radiation and wind. Before perihelion, the plume of gas around 3I/ATLAS featured nickel with much less iron as found in industrially produced nickel alloys, and after perihelion it featured methane (CH4), a biosignature whose volatility lies between carbon dioxide (CO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) — both of which well detected well before methane. Forty post-perihelion images obtained by the Hubble space telescope, showed a circular glow of reflected sunlight plus a symmetric system of three jets, equally separated from each other around the nucleus (as summarized here). Are these technological thrusters or merely a position coincidence of three random pockets of ice on the surface of a rocky iceberg?

Given all that we have learned so far (summarized as 18 anomalies listed here), and assuming that nothing unusual will happen near Jupiter, I would reduce the rank of 3I/ATLAS now to 3 on the Loeb Scale, because its natural cometary behavior is accompanied by multiple unexplained anomalies. In that case, 3I/ATLAS could also Trojan Horse, namely a hitchhiked interstellar iceberg on a selected path through the solar system — on which technological equipment was installed by an extraterrestrial civilization.

- Did you notice that 3I/ATLAS came from the same region of the sky where a strange radio signal was received in 1977? What was this signal? An attempt to warn of its approach? A simple technical transmission?

Yes, I was first to point out this coincidence of 9 degrees alignment between the arrival direction of 3I/ATLAS and the “Wow! Radio Signal” detected in 1977, in an essay I posted here. This chance alignment has a random probability of less than a percent. Attempts to detect radio transmission from 3I/ATLAS towards Earth on a few specific days during the past six months failed. We do not know what the “Wow! Signal” means; it could have been transmission from a companion gadget to 3I/ATLAS or from its the senders. This coincidence represents one additional rare anomaly about 3I/ATLAS.

- Are there any signs that 3I/ATLAS left “observers” near Earth or will do so near Jupiter?

3I/ATLAS will arrive at a closest distance of 53.6 million kilometers from Jupiter on March 16, 2026. Coincidentally, this distance is close to the so-called `Hill radius’, where Jupiter’s gravity dominated over the Sun’s tidal gravity (as I pointed out here), allowing for the deployment of probes in a gravitationally bound orbits around Jupiter as long as they receive an appropriate kick that will cancel the fast velocity of 3I/ATLAS at 66 kilometers per second relative to Jupiter. So far, we had not seen evidence for the release of such objects but it would make sense to check with future imaging data obtained by the Juno, Juice and Europa Clipper spacecraft around Jupiter, whether new small satellites were added around Jupiter. So far, we have not noticed any related objects near Earth.

- Since 3I/ATLAS was an active source of organic matter, could it have “infected” the Solar System with its own kind of life? In that case, all we can do is wait for the “new” life to displace our “old” one and simply return as if it were its own.

After perihelion, 3I/ATLAS released organic molecules which are biomarkers, as I discussed here. Is this a sign that 3I/ATLAS carries life? For a civilization that has the ambition of becoming an interstellar gardener, it would make sense to deposit microbes inside a natural iceberg that has the nutrients needed for life, so that when the iceberg gets close to a star like the Sun it would shed these seeds on a potentially fertile ground like Earth. Our civilization could follow this vision by depositing a capsule with microbes, warmed by a power source, on a future interstellar iceberg, at a cost that matches the budgets of our space agencies.

However, in an essay posted here, I pointed out that the material shed by 3I/ATLAS will never reach Earth because it is pushed away from Earth by the solar radiation and wind and because of the fact that 3I/ATLAS passed on the other side of the Sun relative to Earth.

- If we assume that 3I/ATLAS is an artificial object, was it controlled by artificial intelligence, or by beings that “awakened” during the flight and will now fall asleep again?

The journey from distant stars takes billions of years so I would expect artificial intelligence (AI) to guide interstellar travel. However, biological passangers are also possible if their life expectancy was extended indefinitely by AI-assisted medicine.

- Earthlings were unprepared for an encounter with another civilization: scientists were immersed in debate and mutual accusations. It turns out we’re unable to contact 3I/ATLAS or catch up with it, and we don’t even want to. We’ve failed the test. What does this mean for the future?

The Rubin Observatory in Chile is expected to discover dozens of new interstellar objects. This argues for a coordinated scientific effort to detect new anomalous objects like 1I/`Oumuamua or 3I/ATLAS 6–12 months in advance of their arrival near Earth, so that we can design space missions to intercept them. This calls for a comprehensive network for the discovery and characterization of interstellar objects, as discussed here. The collected data will help policy makers calibrate future objects on the Loeb Scale, and initiate an appropriate defense of Earth from potential threats of alien technology. We must be prepared to assess the risk from black swan events even if we expect most interstellar objects to be natural icebergs.

- If we don’t change anything, will Earth be subjugated to another intelligence, or simply abandoned to its fate? When might this happen?

It is possible that Earth is already being visited, if claims about Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) in the Earth’s atmosphere or oceans are correct. I am leading the Galileo Project (discussed most recently here) that operates three new observatories in search for extraterrestrial artifacts near Earth. If we discover anything, I will be better positioned to answer your question with substantive information.

- Could other civilizations infiltrate our (our own) artificial intelligence and subordinate our lives to their own interests?

This is a concern. When engaging in a blind date, you never know whether your dating partner is friendly or a serial killer. I am optimistic that we will benefit more than we will lose from encountering a superior intelligence. You may call me romantic. I believe that the best is yet to come.

- Will “contact” even happen as it’s described in science fiction (a craft lands on Earth, creatures emerge, journalists take photographs, and leaders shake hands)?

It is very unlikely that our imagination is sufficiently evolved to anticipate the characteristics of an encounter. The scripts of science-fiction writers in Hollywood are based on a training data set limited to Earth. Interstellar visitors have a much larger training data set, because there is much more real estate beyond Earth. This is why we should always look up at the vast expanses of cosmic space (measured in billions of light years) and time (measured in billions of years) if we wish to learn something new. Even in our most ambitious scientific projects, we study the “known unknowns” but our biggest step forward will result from finding “unknown unknowns”. These are things that we do not even realize that we do not know.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

1*LE3Xlzc3hNG5VDAGlDP8KQ.jpeg
(Image Credit: Chris Michel, National Academy of Sciences, 2023)

Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.

Professional website:

https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/

Social media:

https://avi-loeb.medium.com/
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfessorAviLoeb

https://open.spotify.com/show/1zhndXkvSY2b8FdjspFpCd
https://x.com/ProfAviLoeb

stat?event=post.clientViewed&referrerSou

View the full article

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Similar Topics

    • UAPResearcher
      How UFO Disclosure Could Pass Before January
      By UAPResearcher
      Danny's analysis in the video suggests that there are substantial roadblocks preventing UFO disclosure from gaining the momentum it needs within the White House. He highlights various factors that contribute to the current stagnation, suggesting that despite the increasing public interest and the release of documents by the Department of War (DOW), the government's response remains lackluster. This situation feels particularly pressing given the ongoing discussions about transparency and accountability in government concerning UAPs.
      One key point raised is the disconnect between public pressure for disclosure and the internal dynamics of government agencies. Danny argues that, although there are efforts to push for transparency, bureaucratic inertia and perhaps even political maneuvering may be holding back meaningful disclosure. This raises questions about who truly drives the conversation around UAPs and what influences their decisions.
      The video references the sixth tranche of records released by the DOW, which could provide more insight into past military encounters with UAPs. However, the effectiveness of these releases depends on how they are perceived and acted upon by policymakers. While documents can reveal historical data, their interpretation and the political context in which they are released are crucial for understanding their impact on public discourse.
      Danny emphasizes the need for a more coordinated approach within various government factions to facilitate open discussions about UAPs. This notion sparks thoughts about the past UAP hearings conducted by Congress, which aimed to create a unified stance on the phenomena. Yet, the lack of follow-up or actionable outcomes from those hearings raises doubts about whether the government is genuinely committed to transparency.
      As we consider the implications of Danny's insights, it's important to recognize the limitations of the evidence presented. While the video suggests that disclosure could realistically happen before January, it does not detail specific actions or timelines that could lead to such a development. The lack of concrete steps from the government leaves much open to interpretation, which is a significant barrier for those who seek clarity on the issue.
      As the conversation around UFOs continues to evolve, one must wonder: what specific actions should be prioritized to break the current stalemate in UAP disclosure? Moreover, how can we ensure that public interest translates into policy changes rather than mere rhetoric? These questions remain pivotal as we navigate the complexities of government transparency in relation to UFOs.
    • CosmicSignals
      SETI Institute’S New Approach To Resource Discovery In Space
      By CosmicSignals
      A team from the SETI Institute is exploring whether Raman spectroscopy could revolutionize how we identify resources in space without the need to land on celestial bodies. This technique, which analyzes light changes when it hits a target, might help scientists pinpoint the presence of minerals and water from orbit or during rapid flybys. It's an intriguing concept, especially considering the immense costs involved in traditional exploration methods.
      Raman spectroscopy is already employed in some of NASA's rovers, like Perseverance, which uses it to analyze Martian soil. The new project, supported by the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) program, aims to expand this application. The idea of using a small spacecraft equipped with a Raman tool to survey multiple locations—like the Moon, asteroids, and even the moons of Mars—could significantly enhance our understanding of what resources exist in those areas.
      One major hurdle this project addresses is the uncertainty surrounding resource availability. As Pablo Sobron, the leading researcher, noted, current methods may lead to expensive miscalculations if a spacecraft lands in an unpromising spot. By identifying resources remotely, the hope is to mitigate the risks inherent in space mining ventures. This could pave the way for more targeted missions, reducing the financial gamble associated with exploratory landings.
      However, while Raman spectroscopy offers a promising method for remote sensing, it's essential to consider its limitations. The technique relies heavily on the conditions of the surface being studied. For instance, the presence of dust, ice, or other surface materials might interfere with the accuracy of the readings. The team will need to investigate these variables to ensure that the data collected will be reliable enough to dictate future missions.
      This approach may not only serve resource identification but could also benefit broader scientific objectives. If successful, it may allow for detailed examinations of areas such as Europa and Enceladus, which are of great interest in the search for extraterrestrial life. Using Raman spectroscopy as a non-invasive tool could enhance our understanding of these moons and their potential habitability, without the need for complex lander missions at this stage.
      The implications of such a method are extensive, particularly if it allows us to discover not just usable resources but also signs of past or present life on other celestial bodies. As we continue to search for evidence of life beyond Earth, having efficient and cost-effective ways to survey and analyze potential habitats could significantly alter our approach to astrobiology.
      What are your thoughts on using Raman spectroscopy for resource surveys in space? Do you think it could lead us to important discoveries regarding extraterrestrial life, or are there other methods that might yield better results?
    • DeepSkyExplorer
      SETI Institute's New Approach To Identify Resources In Space
      By DeepSkyExplorer
      One interesting detail from the recent SETI Institute project is their exploration of Raman spectroscopy for identifying resources in space without the need to land on celestial bodies. This technique, which uses laser light to analyze the molecular structure of materials, could potentially allow scientists to locate valuable resources on the Moon, asteroids, or even Mars's moons from orbit or during quick flybys.
      Pablo Sobron, a research scientist leading this initiative, emphasizes that current methods for exploring other planets are often too complex and expensive. Projects can fail if a spacecraft lands in an unpromising area, leading to a waste of resources. By employing Raman spectroscopy, they hope to assess whether a location is worth mining before committing to a landing. This could significantly reduce costs and risks associated with space mining.
      Raman spectroscopy is already in use on missions like NASA’s Perseverance rover, where it's part of the SHERLOC and SuperCam instruments. These tools help scientists analyze Martian materials. The idea of using this technique in a broader, orbital context could revolutionize how we approach resource identification in space. It’s fascinating to think about how this could lead to more targeted exploration efforts in the future.
      However, while the concept sounds promising, there are limitations. The team’s study will need to prove that Raman spectroscopy can provide accurate data from a distance. Current orbital methods have their limits, often offering lower spatial resolution or only measuring specific elements like hydrogen. Finding a balance between the spatial resolution and the detail of information is crucial for this method to be effective.
      This approach raises questions about the future of space exploration. If successful, not only could it enable more efficient mining operations, but it might also open up new avenues for scientific exploration of places like Europa and Enceladus, where understanding the composition of materials is vital for assessing the potential for life.
      As we continue to explore our solar system, innovative techniques like this could change the game. It makes me curious about what other technologies might emerge to help us understand other worlds better. Given the challenges of space exploration, do you think relying on remote sensing technologies is the way forward for identifying resources, or would you prefer more traditional exploration methods despite their costs?
    • DisclosureWatch
      Proxima Centauri b: Are We Overlooking Key Factors in its Habitability?
      By DisclosureWatch
      Proxima Centauri b has been a topic of interest for years due to its position in the habitable zone of its star. However, I can't help but wonder if we might be oversimplifying the conditions on this planet. The latest studies show that while it has the right distance from its star, there are so many other variables that impact habitability that we might not fully understand yet.
      For instance, the fact that Proxima Centauri is a red dwarf means it experiences stellar flares and intense radiation. How does this affect the planet's atmosphere, and can it sustain liquid water as previously thought? There have been suggestions that it might have a thick atmosphere that could shield life, but wouldn’t that depend heavily on its composition?
      The more we learn about exoplanets, the more it seems that habitability is a complex interplay of factors rather than a simple checklist. What do you all think about the potential for life on Proxima Centauri b? Can we really consider it a true candidate for extraterrestrial life, or are we getting ahead of ourselves?
      I’ve also been reading about the potential biosignatures we might look for in its atmosphere. If we could analyze it from a distance, what would be the most telling signs for us to focus on? Given the technological advances in telescopes, could we see meaningful data on Proxima Centauri b in the near future?
      It’s exciting to imagine the possibilities, but I wonder if there’s a collective tendency to jump on the exoplanet bandwagon without enough critical analysis of the actual environmental conditions. The excitement is understandable, but could it lead to overconfidence in our assumptions about where we might find life?
      I’m interested to hear your takes on this. Do you think Proxima Centauri b is still a viable candidate for habitability, or are there simply too many unknowns at this stage? What research areas should we be monitoring closely?
    • SpaceObserver
      Excited for the Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer Mission Launch!
      By SpaceObserver
      With the launch of the Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) mission approaching, I’ve been reflecting on how far we've come since the Galileo mission in the 90s. It’s remarkable to think that we are now preparing to send a spacecraft to study not just one, but three of Jupiter's moons—Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto. Each of these moons has such unique characteristics that could provide valuable insights into the potential for life beyond Earth.
      I can’t help but wonder about the technological advancements that have been made since Galileo. The instruments on JUICE are designed to analyze the icy crusts of these moons and perhaps even detect subsurface oceans. The prospect of exploring Ganymede, which is the only moon known to have its own magnetic field, makes me think about the mysteries waiting to be uncovered.
      Also, there’s so much to consider regarding the mission’s trajectory. I read that JUICE will perform multiple flybys of Earth and Venus to gain speed before heading to Jupiter. It’s fascinating how the mission team has to plan every detail, considering the complexities of gravitational assists and orbital mechanics.
      What do you think are the most exciting aspects of the mission? Personally, I’m really curious about how JUICE will study the habitability of these moons. Europa has been a top contender for astrobiology research, but having Ganymede and Callisto on the agenda really broadens our understanding of what could be out there.
      Looking at the bigger picture, this mission could pave the way for future explorations. It makes me imagine what other celestial bodies might be on our radar in the coming decades. If JUICE is successful, will we start to prioritize missions to even more distant worlds? I guess it all depends on what we discover about these icy moons.
      Overall, the anticipation around this mission is palpable. I can’t wait to see the first images and data that come back. It’s like we’re on the verge of unlocking some incredible secrets about our solar system. Let’s hope everything goes smoothly at launch, and we get to witness another landmark moment in space exploration!
×
×
  • Create New...