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1*kYtrQek-ggaLaC46_IL_kA.jpeg
Image of 3I/ATLAS on Dec. 21.627, 2025 UTC (with a contour plot on the left). The jet to the right (west) is the anti-tail heading towards the Sun. The field is 6 by 12 arcminutes, and the exposure duration is 15 seconds on the NEOSSat 0.15-m Maksutov orbiting telescope. The coordinate grid is ecliptic 2000. (Image credit: D. D. Balam (DAO/NRC), C. E. Spratt (ret), D. W. E. Green (CBAT), P. Langill (RAO/U. of Calgary), Omar Elmi (CSA), Jack Williams (CSA) & Canadian Space Agency)

In my latest two essays, accessible here and here, I showed that the characteristic radius of dust particles in the anti-tail jet launched from the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is of order ~10 microns. This conclusion was based on the observed length of the jet and the requirement that the dust particles reach the jet speed through drag on the outflowing gas. Given these requirements, I derived here the mass density D of gas in the outflow at a distance d from the nucleus center,

D~(3.2*10^{-8} g/cm³)*(d/1km)^{-2},

Later, I derived here that ~0.7% of the total mass loss after perihelion is carried by ~10-micron dust particles. The mass of each 10-micron dust particle is m~10^{-8} g, implying that the particle number per unit volume near the base of the jet is:

n~(0.7%)*D]/m= 2.2 cm^{-3}*(d/1km)^{-2}.

The cross-sectional area of each 10-micron particle for scattering sunlight is:

S=pi*(10^{-3}cm)²= 3.14*10^{-6} cm².

Therefore, the scattering probability of sunlight from outside down to a distance d from the nucleus center is given by:

P = (n*S*d) ~ 0.7*(d/1km)^{-1}.

The minimum value of the radial distance d is the radius of the nucleus, R_n:

minimum{d}=R_n.

If the scattering probability P exceeds a value of unity, then the nucleus surface of a natural comet would not be exposed to sunlight and the release of gas or dust would stop. This implies that the radius of the nucleus for a natural comet must be larger than the value of d which yields P~1, namely:

R_n> 0.7 km,

corresponding to a minimum nucleus diameter for 3I/ATLAS of ~1.4 kilometers.

This lower limit applies only if the jet results from the illumination of the nucleus of a natural comet by sunlight. On the other hand, if the release of dust is intended to protect a technological object from sunlight, then a value of P>1 around the nucleus will be favored by design as a protective blanket. In this case, the nucleus of 3I/ATLAS might have a radius R_n<0.7 km which cannot be resolved in scattered sunlight by an external observer.

Either way, it is a remarkable coincidence that P is of order unity for the inferred size and mass loss rate of 3I/ATLAS. This coincidence could be a natural consequence of a self-regulating feedback loop that keeps the value of P close to ~1 because a larger value suppresses the release of dust whereas a smaller value enhances the release of dust, bringing the density of dust at the base of the jet to yield P~1. But it could also be a protective measure of an artificial origin.

In summary, the blanket of dust surrounding 3I/ATLAS is on the borderline between it being opaque and transparent to sunlight. This means that imaging by an external camera with a sub-kilometer spatial resolution would have likely shown a fuzzy cloud of dust rather than a nucleus with a sharp boundary.

3I/ATLAS is hiding behind a veil of dust.

***

Before my morning jog at sunrise, I received the following uplifting message:

“Dear Professor Loeb,

I wanted to thank you for your work — not only for its scientific substance, but for the example it sets.

You have shown — publicly and consistently — that science is not about defending answers, but about protecting questions. That stance has inspired many people, especially young ones, to see science not as a closed guild of certainties, but as an open-minded, intellectually demanding adventure.

A few excerpts came to mind that I think resonate strongly with your approach:

Václav Havel once wrote: “Keep the company of those who seek the truth — run from those who have found it.” That sentence could double as a survival guide for modern science.

I have replaced the word “psychoanalyst” with “scientist” in this letter of Anna Freud from the 1960s and the result holds true: “If you want to be a real [scientist] you have to have a great love of the truth, scientific truth as well as personal truth, and you have to place this appreciation of truth higher than any discomfort at meeting unpleasant facts.”

And finally, a line from Spielberg’s 2002 mini-series Taken that has stayed with me: “Life is about asking questions, not about knowing the answers. It’s what lies over the next hill that keeps us going.” Your work embodies that spirit. For many aspiring scientists, it quietly gives permission to be curious, intellectually honest, and a little bit brave.

Wishing you a New Year with more good questions than comfortable answers.

Alex Zivoder
Luxembourg
”

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

1*LE3Xlzc3hNG5VDAGlDP8KQ.jpeg
(Image Credit: Chris Michel, National Academy of Sciences, 2023)

Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.

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