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Asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses significant impact risk
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By European Space Agency
Asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines earlier this year when its probability of impacting Earth in 2032 rose as high as 3%. While an Earth impact has now been ruled out, the asteroid’s story continues.
The final glimpse of the asteroid as it faded out of view of humankind’s most powerful telescopes left it with a 4% chance of colliding with the Moon on 22 December 2032.
The likelihood of a lunar impact will now remain stable until the asteroid returns to view in mid-2028. In this FAQ, find out why we are left with this lingering uncertainty and how ESA's planned NEOMIR space telescope will help us avoid similar situations in the future.
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By NASA
On June 11, NASA’s LRO (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) captured photos of the site where the ispace Mission 2 SMBC x HAKUTO-R Venture Moon (RESILIENCE) lunar lander experienced a hard landing on June 5, 2025, UTC.
RESILIENCE lunar lander impact site, as seen by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) on June 11, 2025. The lander created a dark smudge surrounded by a subtle bright halo.Credit: NASA/Goddard/Arizona State University. RESILIENCE was launched on Jan. 15 on a privately funded spacecraft.
LRO’s right Narrow Angle Camera (one in a suite of cameras known as LROC) captured the images featured here from about 50 miles above the surface of Mare Frigoris, a volcanic region interspersed with large-scale faults known as wrinkle ridges.
The dark smudge visible above the arrow in the photo formed as the vehicle impacted the surface, kicking up regolith — the rock and dust that make up Moon “soil.” The faint bright halo encircling the site resulted from low-angle regolith particles scouring the delicate surface.
This animation shows the RESILIENCE site before and after the impact. In the image, north is up. Looking from west to east, or left to right, the area pictured covers 2 miles.Credit: NASA/Goddard/Arizona State University. LRO is managed by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington. Launched on June 18, 2009, LRO has collected a treasure trove of data with its seven powerful instruments, making an invaluable contribution to our knowledge about the Moon. NASA is returning to the Moon with commercial and international partners to expand human presence in space and bring back new knowledge and opportunities.
More on this story from Arizona State University’s LRO Camera website
Media Contact
Karen Fox / Molly Wasser
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1600
karen.c.fox@nasa.gov / molly.l.wasser@nasa.gov
Lonnie Shekhtman
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
lonnie.shekhtman@nasa.gov
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Last Updated Jun 20, 2025 EditorMadison OlsonContactMolly Wassermolly.l.wasser@nasa.govLocationGoddard Space Flight Center Related Terms
Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Earth's Moon View the full article
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By European Space Agency
The European Space Agency’s (ESA) newest planetary defender has opened its ‘eye’ to the cosmos for the first time. The Flyeye telescope’s ‘first light’ marks the beginning of a new chapter in how we scan the skies for new near-Earth asteroids and comets.
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By European Space Agency
Image: This image shows Webb’s recent observation of the asteroid 2024 YR4 using both its Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). Data from NIRCam shows reflected light, while the MIRI observations show thermal light.
On 8 March 2025, the NASA/ESA/CSA James Webb Space Telescope turned its watchful eye toward asteroid 2024 YR4, which we now know poses no significant threat to Earth in 2032 and beyond.
This is the smallest object targeted by Webb to date, and one of the smallest objects to have its size directly measured.
Observations were taken to study the thermal properties of 2024 YR4, including how quickly it heats up and cools down and how hot it is at its current distance from the Sun. These measurements indicate that this asteroid does not share properties observed in larger asteroids. This is likely a combination of its fast spin and lack of fine-grained sand on its surface. Further research is needed, however this is considered consistent with a surface dominated by rocks that are roughly fist-sized or larger.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was recently under close watch by the team at ESA's Near Earth Objects Coordination Centre, located in Italy. Planetary defence experts from the Agency's Space Safety programme worked with NASA and the international asteroid community to closely watch this object and refine its orbit, which was eventually determined to not pose a risk of Earth impact. Read details on this unusual campaign via ESA's Rocket Science blog and in news articles here and here.
Webb’s observations indicate that the asteroid measures roughly 60 meters (comparable to the height of a 15-story building).
The new observations from Webb not only provide unique information about 2024 YR4’s size, but can also complement ground-based observations of the object's position to help improve our understanding of the object’s orbit and future trajectory.
Note: This post highlights data from Webb science in progress, which has not yet been through the peer-review process.
[Image description: A collage of three images showing the black expanse of space. Two-thirds of the collage is taken up by the black background sprinkled with small, blurry galaxies in orange, blue, and white. There are two images in a column at the right side of the collage. On the right side of the main image, not far from the top, a very faint dot is outlined with a white square. At the right, there are two zoomed in views of this area. The top box is labeled NIRCam and shows a fuzzy dot at the center of the inset. The bottom box is labeled MIRI and shows a fuzzy pinkish dot.]
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