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By NASA
Scientists predict one of the major surveys by NASA’s upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope may reveal around 100,000 celestial blasts, ranging from exploding stars to feeding black holes. Roman may even find evidence of some of the universe’s first stars, which are thought to completely self-destruct without leaving any remnant behind.
This simulation showcases the dynamic universe as NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope could see it over the course of its five-year primary mission. The video sparkles with synthetic supernovae from observations of the OpenUniverse simulated universe taken every five days (similar to the expected cadence of Roman’s High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey, which OpenUniverse simulates in its entirety). On top of the static sky of stars in the Milky Way and other galaxies, more than a million exploding stars flare into visibility and then slowly fade away. To highlight the dynamic physics happening and for visibility at this scale, the true brightness of each transient event has been magnified by a factor of 10,000 and no background light has been added to the simulated images. The video begins with Roman’s full field of view, which represents a single pointing of Roman’s camera, and then zooms into one square.Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and M. Troxel Cosmic explosions offer clues to some of the biggest mysteries of the universe. One is the nature of dark energy, the mysterious pressure thought to be accelerating the universe’s expansion.
“Whether you want to explore dark energy, dying stars, galactic powerhouses, or probably even entirely new things we’ve never seen before, this survey will be a gold mine,” said Benjamin Rose, an assistant professor at Baylor University in Waco, Texas, who led a study about the results. The paper is published in The Astrophysical Journal.
Called the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey, this observation program will scan the same large region of the cosmos every five days for two years. Scientists will stitch these observations together to create movies that uncover all sorts of cosmic fireworks.
Chief among them are exploding stars. The survey is largely geared toward finding a special class of supernova called type Ia. These stellar cataclysms allow scientists to measure cosmic distances and trace the universe’s expansion because they peak at about the same intrinsic brightness. Figuring out how fast the universe has ballooned during different cosmic epochs offers clues to dark energy.
This landscape of “mountains” and “valleys” speckled with glittering stars is actually the edge of a nearby, young, star-forming region called NGC 3324 in the Carina Nebula. Captured in infrared light by NASA’s new James Webb Space Telescope, this image reveals for the first time previously invisible areas of star birth.Credit: NASA, ESA, CSA, and STScI In the new study, scientists simulated Roman’s entire High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey. The results suggest Roman could see around 27,000 type Ia supernovae—about 10 times more than all previous surveys combined.
Beyond dramatically increasing our total sample of these supernovae, Roman will push the boundaries of how far back in time we can see them. While most of those detected so far occurred within approximately the last 8 billion years, Roman is expected to see vast numbers of them earlier in the universe’s history, including more than a thousand that exploded more than 10 billion years ago and potentially dozens from as far back as 11.5 billion years. That means Roman will almost certainly set a new record for the farthest type Ia supernova while profoundly expanding our view of the early universe and filling in a critical gap in our understanding of how the cosmos has evolved over time.
“Filling these data gaps could also fill in gaps in our understanding of dark energy,” Rose said. “Evidence is mounting that dark energy has changed over time, and Roman will help us understand that change by exploring cosmic history in ways other telescopes can’t.”
But type Ia supernovae will be hidden among a much bigger sample of exploding stars Roman will see once it begins science operations in 2027. The team estimates Roman will also spot about 60,000 core-collapse supernovae, which occur when a massive star runs out of fuel and collapses under its own weight.
That’s different from type Ia supernovae, which originate from binary star systems that contain at least one white dwarf — the small, hot core remnant of a Sun-like star — siphoning material from a companion star. Core-collapse supernovae aren’t as useful for dark energy studies as type Ias are, but their signals look similar from halfway across the cosmos.
“By seeing the way an object’s light changes over time and splitting it into spectra — individual colors with patterns that reveal information about the object that emitted the light—we can distinguish between all the different types of flashes Roman will see,” said Rebekah Hounsell, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County working at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland and a co-author of the study.
“With the dataset we’ve created, scientists can train machine-learning algorithms to distinguish between different types of objects and sift through Roman’s downpour of data to find them,” Hounsell added. “While searching for type Ia supernovae, Roman is going to collect a lot of cosmic ‘bycatch’—other phenomena that aren’t useful to some scientists, but will be invaluable to others.”
Hidden Gems
Thanks to Roman’s large, deep view of space, scientists say the survey should also unearth extremely rare and elusive phenomena, including even scarcer stellar explosions and disintegrating stars.
Upon close approach to a black hole, intense gravity can shred a star in a so-called tidal disruption event. The stellar crumbs heat up as they swirl around the black hole, creating a glow astronomers can see from across vast stretches of space-time. Scientists think Roman’s survey will unveil 40 tidal disruption events, offering a chance to learn more about black hole physics.
The team also estimates Roman will find about 90 superluminous supernovae, which can be 100 times brighter than a typical supernova. They pack a punch, but scientists aren’t completely sure why. Finding more of them will help astronomers weigh different theories.
Even rarer and more powerful, Roman could also detect several kilonovae. These blasts occur when two neutron stars — extremely dense cores leftover from stars that exploded as supernovae — collide. To date, there has been only one definitive kilonova detection. The team estimates Roman could spot five more.
NASA’s Roman Space Telescope will survey the same areas of the sky every few days following its launch in May 2027. Researchers will mine these data to identify kilonovae – explosions that happen when two neutron stars or a neutron star and a black hole collide and merge. When these collisions happen, a fraction of the resulting debris is ejected as jets, which move near the speed of light. The remaining debris produces hot, glowing, neutron-rich clouds that forge heavy elements, like gold and platinum. Roman’s extensive data will help astronomers better identify how often these events occur, how much energy they give off, and how near or far they are.Credit: NASA, ESA, J. Olmsted (STScI) That would help astronomers learn much more about these mysterious events, potentially including their fate. As of now, scientists are unsure whether kilonovae result in a single neutron star, a black hole, or something else entirely.
Roman may even spot the detonations of some of the first stars that formed in the universe. These nuclear furnaces were giants, up to hundreds of times more massive than our Sun, and unsullied by heavy elements that hadn’t yet formed.
They were so massive that scientists think they exploded differently than modern massive stars do. Instead of reaching the point where a heavy star today would collapse, intense gamma rays inside the first stars may have turned into matter-antimatter pairs (electrons and positrons). That would drain the pressure holding the stars up until they collapsed, self-destructing in explosions so powerful they’re thought to leave nothing behind.
So far, astronomers have found about half a dozen candidates of these “pair-instability” supernovae, but none have been confirmed.
“I think Roman will make the first confirmed detection of a pair-instability supernova,” Rose said — in fact the study suggests Roman will find more than 10. “They’re incredibly far away and very rare, so you need a telescope that can survey a lot of the sky at a deep exposure level in near-infrared light, and that’s Roman.”
A future rendition of the simulation could include even more types of cosmic flashes, such as variable stars and active galaxies. Other telescopes may follow up on the rare phenomena and objects Roman discovers to view them in different wavelengths of light to study them in more detail.
“Roman’s going to find a whole bunch of weird and wonderful things out in space, including some we haven’t even thought of yet,” Hounsell said. “We’re definitely expecting the unexpected.”
For more information about the Roman Space Telescope visit www.nasa.gov/roman.
The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is managed at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, with participation by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California; Caltech/IPAC in Pasadena, California; the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore; and a science team comprising scientists from various research institutions. The primary industrial partners are BAE Systems Inc. in Boulder, Colorado; L3Harris Technologies in Rochester, New York; and Teledyne Scientific & Imaging in Thousand Oaks, California.
By Ashley Balzer
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
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Last Updated Jul 15, 2025 EditorAshley BalzerContactAshley Balzerashley.m.balzer@nasa.gov Related Terms
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By NASA
This artist’s concept animation shows the orbital dynamics of KOI-134 system which, in 2025, a paper revealed to have two planets: KOI-134 b and KOI-134 c. NASA/JPL-Caltech/K. Miller (Caltech/IPAC) The Planets
KOI-134 b and KOI-134 c
This artist’s concept shows the KOI-134 system which, in 2025, a paper revealed to have two planets: KOI-134 b and KOI-134 c. NASA/JPL-Caltech/K. Miller (Caltech/IPAC) The Discovery
A new investigation into old Kepler data has revealed that a planetary system once thought to house zero planets actually has two planets which orbit their star in a unique style, like an old-fashioned merry-go-round.
Key Facts
The KOI-134 system contains two planets which orbit their star in a peculiar fashion on two different orbital planes, with one planet exhibiting significant variation in transit times. This is the first-discovered system of its kind.
Details
Over a decade ago, scientists used NASA’s Kepler Space Telescope to observe the KOI-134 system and thought that it might have a planet orbiting, but they deemed this planet candidate to be a false positive, because its transits (or passes in front of its star) were not lining up as expected. These transits were so abnormal that the planet was actually weeded out through an automated system as a false positive before it could be analyzed further.
However, NASA’s commitment to openly sharing scientific data means that researchers can constantly revisit old observations to make new discoveries. In this new study, researchers re-analyzed this Kepler data on KOI-134 and confirmed that not only is the “false positive” actually a real planet, but the system has two planets and some really interesting orbital dynamics!
First, the “false positive” planet, named KOI-134 b, was confirmed to be a warm Jupiter (or a warm planet of a similar size to Jupiter). Through this analysis, researchers uncovered that the reason this planet eluded confirmation previously is because it experiences what are called transit timing variations (TTVs), or small differences in a planet’s transit across its star that can make its transit “early” or “late” because the planet is being pushed or pulled by the gravity from another planet which was also revealed in this study. Researchers estimate that KOI-134 b transits across its star as much as 20 hours “late” or “early,” which is a significant variation. In fact, it was so significant that it’s the reason why the planet wasn’t confirmed in initial observations.
As these TTVs are caused by the gravitational interaction with another planet, this discovery also revealed a planetary sibling: KOI-134 c. Through studying this system in simulations that include these TTVs, the team found that KOI-134 c is a planet slightly smaller than Saturn and closer to its star than KOI-134 b.
This artist’s concept shows the KOI-134 system which, in 2025, a paper revealed to have two planets: KOI-134 b and KOI-134 c. NASA/JPL-Caltech/K. Miller (Caltech/IPAC) KOI-134 c previously eluded observation because it orbits on a tilted orbital plane, a different plane from KOI-134 b, and this tilted orbit prevents the planet from transiting its star. The two orbital planes of these planets are about 15 degrees different from one another, also known as a mutual inclination of 15 degrees, which is significant. Due to the gravitational push and pull between these two planets, their orbital planes also tilt back and forth.
Another interesting feature of this planetary system is something called resonance. These two planets have a 2 to 1 resonance, meaning within the same time that one planet completes one orbit, the other completes two orbits. In this case, KOI-134 b has an orbital period (the time it takes a planet to complete one orbit) of about 67 days, which is twice the orbital period of KOI-134 c, which orbits every 33-34 days.
Between the separate orbital planes tilting back and forth, the TTVs, and the resonance, the two planets orbit their star in a pattern that resembles two wooden ponies bobbing up and down as they circle around on an old-fashioned merry go round.
Fun Facts
While this system started as a false positive with Kepler, this re-analysis of the data reveals a vibrant system with two planets. In fact, this is the first-ever discovered compact, multiplanetary system that isn’t flat, has such a significant TTV, and experiences orbital planes tilting back and forth.
Also, most planetary systems do not have high mutual inclinations between close planet pairs. In addition to being a rarity, mutual inclinations like this are also not often measured because of challenges within the observation process. So, having measurements like this of a significant mutual inclination in a system, as well as measurements of resonance and TTVs, provides a clear picture of dynamics within a planetary system which we are not always able to see.
The Discoverers
A team of scientists led by Emma Nabbie of the University of Southern Queensland published a paper on June 27 on their discovery, “A high mutual inclination system around KOI-134 revealed by transit timing variations,” in the journal “Nature Astronomy.” The observations described in this paper and used in simulations in this paper were made by NASA’s Kepler Space Telescope and the paper included collaboration and contributions from institutions including the University of Geneva, University of La Laguna, Purple Mountain Observatory, the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, the Georgia Institute of Technology, the University of Southern Queensland, and NASA’s retired Kepler Space Telescope.
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By NASA
Explore Webb Webb News Latest News Latest Images Webb’s Blog Awards X (offsite – login reqd) Instagram (offsite – login reqd) Facebook (offsite- login reqd) Youtube (offsite) Overview About Who is James Webb? Fact Sheet Impacts+Benefits FAQ Science Overview and Goals Early Universe Galaxies Over Time Star Lifecycle Other Worlds Observatory Overview Launch Deployment Orbit Mirrors Sunshield Instrument: NIRCam Instrument: MIRI Instrument: NIRSpec Instrument: FGS/NIRISS Optical Telescope Element Backplane Spacecraft Bus Instrument Module Multimedia About Webb Images Images Videos What is Webb Observing? 3d Webb in 3d Solar System Podcasts Webb Image Sonifications Webb’s First Images Team International Team People Of Webb More For the Media For Scientists For Educators For Fun/Learning Since July 2022, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has been unwaveringly focused on our universe. With its unprecedented power to detect and analyze otherwise invisible infrared light, Webb is making observations that were once impossible, changing our view of the cosmos from the most distant galaxies to our own solar system.
Webb was built with the promise of revolutionizing astronomy, of rewriting the textbooks. And by any measure, it has more than lived up to the hype — exceeding expectations to a degree that scientists had not dared imagine. Since science operations began, Webb has completed more than 860 scientific programs, with one-quarter of its time dedicated to imaging and three-quarters to spectroscopy. In just three years, it has collected nearly 550 terabytes of data, yielding more than 1,600 research papers, with intriguing results too numerous to list and a host of new questions to answer.
Here are just a few noteworthy examples.
1. The universe evolved significantly faster than we previously thought.
Webb was specifically designed to observe “cosmic dawn,” a time during the first billion years of the universe when the first stars and galaxies were forming. What we expected to see were a few faint galaxies, hints of what would become the galaxies we see nearby.
Instead, Webb has revealed surprisingly bright galaxies that developed within 300 million years of the big bang; galaxies with black holes that seem far too massive for their age; and an infant Milky Way-type galaxy that existed when the universe was just 600 million years old. Webb has observed galaxies that already “turned off” and stopped forming stars within a billion years of the big bang, as well as those that developed quickly into modern-looking “grand design” spirals within 1.5 billion years.
Hundreds of millions of years might not seem quick for a growth spurt, but keep in mind that the universe formed in the big bang roughly 13.8 billion years ago. If you were to cram all of cosmic time into one year, the most distant of these galaxies would have matured within the first couple of weeks, rapidly forming multiple generations of stars and enriching the universe with the elements we see today.
Image: JADES deep field
A near-infrared image from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope shows a region known as the JADES Deep Field. Tens of thousands of galaxies are visible in this tiny patch of sky, including Little Red Dots and hundreds of galaxies that existed more than 13.2 billion years ago, when the universe was less than 600 million years old. Webb also spotted roughly 80 ancient supernovae, many of which exploded when the universe was less than 2 billion years old. This is ten times more supernovae than had ever been discovered before in the early universe. Comparing these supernovae from the distant past with those in the more recent, nearby universe helps us understand how stars in these early times formed, lived, and died, seeding space with the elements for new generations of stars and their planets. NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, JADES Collaboration 2. Deep space is scattered with enigmatic “Little Red Dots.”
Webb has revealed a new type of galaxy: a distant population of mysteriously compact, bright, red galaxies dubbed Little Red Dots. What makes Little Red Dots so bright and so red? Are they lit up by dense groupings of unusually bright stars or by gas spiraling into a supermassive black hole, or both? And whatever happened to them? Little Red Dots seem to have appeared in the universe around 600 million years after the big bang (13.2 billion years ago), and rapidly declined in number less than a billion years later. Did they evolve into something else? If so, how? Webb is probing Little Red Dots in more detail to answer these questions.
3. Pulsating stars and a triply lensed supernova are further evidence that the “Hubble Tension” is real.
How fast is the universe expanding? It’s hard to say because different ways of calculating the current expansion rate yield different results — a dilemma known as the Hubble Tension. Are these differences just a result of measurement errors, or is there something weird going on in the universe? So far, Webb data indicates that the Hubble Tension is not caused by measurement errors. Webb was able to distinguish pulsating stars from nearby stars in a crowded field, ensuring that the measurements weren’t contaminated by extra light. Webb also discovered a distant, gravitationally lensed supernova whose image appears in three different locations and at three different times during its explosion. Calculating the expansion rate based on the brightness of the supernova at these three different times provides an independent check on measurements made using other techniques. Until the matter of the Hubble Tension is settled, Webb will continue measuring different objects and exploring new methods.
4. Webb has found surprisingly rich and varied atmospheres on gas giants orbiting distant stars.
While NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope made the first detection of gases in the atmosphere of a gas giant exoplanet (a planet outside our solar system), Webb has taken studies to an entirely new level. Webb has revealed a rich cocktail of chemicals, including hydrogen sulfide, ammonia, carbon dioxide, methane, and sulfur dioxide — none of which had been clearly detected in an atmosphere outside our solar system before. Webb has also been able to examine exotic climates of gas giants as never before, detecting flakes of silica “snow” in the skies of the puffy, searing-hot gas giant WASP-17 b, for example, and measuring differences in temperature and cloud cover between the permanent morning and evening skies of WASP-39 b.
Image: Spectrum of WASP-107 b
A transmission spectrum of the “warm Neptune” exoplanet WASP-107 b captured by NASA’s Hubble and Webb space telescopes, shows clear evidence for water, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, sulfur dioxide, and ammonia in the planet’s atmosphere. These measurements allowed researchers to estimate the interior temperature and mass of the core of the planet, as well as understand the chemistry and dynamics of the atmosphere. NASA, ESA, CSA, Ralf Crawford (STScI) 5. A rocky planet 40 light-years from Earth may have an atmosphere fed by gas bubbling up from its lava-covered surface.
Detecting, let alone analyzing, a thin layer of gas surrounding a small rocky planet is no easy feat, but Webb’s extraordinary ability to measure extremely subtle changes in the brightness of infrared light makes it possible. So far, Webb has been able to rule out significant atmosphere on a number of rocky planets, and has found tantalizing signs of carbon monoxide or carbon dioxide on 55 Cancri e, a lava world that orbits a Sun-like star. With findings like these, Webb is laying the groundwork for NASA’s future Habitable Worlds Observatory, which will be the first mission purpose-built to directly image and search for life on Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars.
6. Webb exposes the skeletal structure of nearby spiral galaxies in mesmerizing detail.
We already knew that galaxies are collections of stars, planets, dust, gas, dark matter, and black holes: cosmic cities where stars form, live, die, and are recycled into the next generation. But we had never been able to see the structure of a galaxy and the interactions between stars and their environment in such detail. Webb’s infrared vision reveals filaments of dust that trace the spiral arms, old star clusters that make up galactic cores, newly forming stars still encased in dense cocoons of glowing dust and gas, and clusters of hot young stars carving enormous cavities in the dust. It also elucidates how stellar winds and explosions actively reshape their galactic homes.
Image: PHANGS Phantom Galaxy (M74/NGC 628)
A near- to mid-infrared image from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope highlights details in the complex structure of a nearby galaxy that are invisible to other telescopes. The image of NGC 628, also known as the Phantom Galaxy, shows spiral arms with lanes of warm dust (represented in red), knots of glowing gas (orange-yellow), and giant bubbles (black) carved by hot, young stars. The dust-free core of the galaxy is filled with older, cooler stars (blue). NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Janice Lee (STScI), Thomas Williams (Oxford), PHANGS team 7. It can be hard to tell the difference between a brown dwarf and a rogue planet.
Brown dwarfs form like stars, but are not dense or hot enough to fuse hydrogen in their cores like stars do. Rogue planets form like other planets, but have been ejected from their system and no longer orbit a star. Webb has spotted hundreds of brown-dwarf-like objects in the Milky Way, and has even detected some candidates in a neighboring galaxy. But some of these objects are so small — just a few times the mass of Jupiter — that it is hard to figure out how they formed. Are they free-floating gas giant planets instead? What is the least amount of material needed to form a brown dwarf or a star? We’re not sure yet, but thanks to three years of Webb observations, we now know there is a continuum of objects from planets to brown dwarfs to stars.
8. Some planets might be able to survive the death of their star.
When a star like our Sun dies, it swells up to form a red giant large enough to engulf nearby planets. It then sheds its outer layers, leaving behind a super-hot core known as a white dwarf. Is there a safe distance that planets can survive this process? Webb might have found some planets orbiting white dwarfs. If these candidates are confirmed, it would mean that it is possible for planets to survive the death of their star, remaining in orbit around the slowly cooling stellar ember.
9. Saturn’s water supply is fed by a giant fountain of vapor spewing from Enceladus.
Among the icy “ocean worlds” of our solar system, Saturn’s moon Enceladus might be the most intriguing. NASA’s Cassini mission first detected water plumes coming out of its southern pole. But only Webb could reveal the plume’s true scale as a vast cloud spanning more than 6,000 miles, about 20 times wider than Enceladus itself. This water spreads out into a donut-shaped torus encircling Saturn beyond the rings that are visible in backyard telescopes. While a fraction of the water stays in that ring, the majority of it spreads throughout the Saturnian system, even raining down onto the planet itself. Webb’s unique observations of rings, auroras, clouds, winds, ices, gases, and other materials and phenomena in the solar system are helping us better understand what our cosmic neighborhood is made of and how it has changed over time.
Video: Water plume and torus from Enceladus
A combination of images and spectra captured by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope show a giant plume of water jetting out from the south pole of Saturn’s moon Enceladus, creating a donut-shaped ring of water around the planet.
Credit: NASA, ESA, CSA, G. Villanueva (NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center), A. Pagan (STScI), L. Hustak (STScI) 10. Webb can size up asteroids that may be headed for Earth.
In 2024 astronomers discovered an asteroid that, based on preliminary calculations, had a chance of hitting Earth. Such potentially hazardous asteroids become an immediate focus of attention, and Webb was uniquely able to measure the object, which turned out to be the size of a 15-story building. While this particular asteroid is no longer considered a threat to Earth, the study demonstrated Webb’s ability to assess the hazard.
Webb also provided support for NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which deliberately smashed into the Didymos binary asteroid system, showing that a planned impact could deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth. Both Webb and Hubble observed the impact, serving witness to the resulting spray of material that was ejected. Webb’s spectroscopic observations of the system confirmed that the composition of the asteroids is probably typical of those that could threaten Earth.
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In just three years of operations, Webb has brought the distant universe into focus, revealing unexpectedly bright and numerous galaxies. It has unveiled new stars in their dusty cocoons, remains of exploded stars, and skeletons of entire galaxies. It has studied weather on gas giants, and hunted for atmospheres on rocky planets. And it has provided new insights into the residents of our own solar system.
But this is only the beginning. Engineers estimate that Webb has enough fuel to continue observing for at least 20 more years, giving us the opportunity to answer additional questions, pursue new mysteries, and put together more pieces of the cosmic puzzle.
For example: What were the very first stars like? Did stars form differently in the early universe? Do we even know how galaxies form? How do stars, dust, and supermassive black holes affect each other? What can merging galaxy clusters tell us about the nature of dark matter? How do collisions, bursts of stellar radiation, and migration of icy pebbles affect planet-forming disks? Can atmospheres survive on rocky worlds orbiting active red dwarf stars? Is Uranus’s moon Ariel an ocean world?
As with any scientific endeavor, every answer raises more questions, and Webb has shown that its investigative power is unmatched. Demand for observing time on Webb is at an all-time high, greater than any other telescope in history, on the ground or in space. What new findings await?
By Dr. Macarena Garcia Marin and Margaret W. Carruthers, Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, Maryland
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Laura Betz – laura.e.betz@nasa.gov
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
Christine Pulliam – cpulliam@stsci.edu
Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, Md.
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Last Updated Jul 02, 2025 Editor Marty McCoy Contact Laura Betz laura.e.betz@nasa.gov Related Terms
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NASA-Assisted Scientists Get Bird’s-Eye View of Population Status
Through the eBird citizen scientist program, millions of birders have recorded their observations of different species and submitted checklists to the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. Through a partnership with NASA, the lab has now used this data to model and map bird population trends for nearly 500 North American species.
Led by Alison Johnston of the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, the researchers reported that 75% of bird species in the study are declining at wide-range scales. And yet this study has some good news for birds. The results, published in Science in May, offer insights and projections that could shape the future conservation of the places where birds make their homes.
“This project demonstrates the power of merging in situ data with NASA remote sensing to model biological phenomena that were previously impossible to document,” said Keith Gaddis, NASA’s Biological Diversity and Ecological Forecasting program manager at the agency’s headquarters in Washington, who was not involved in the study. “This data provides not just insight into the Earth system but also provides actionable guidance to land managers to mitigate biodiversity loss.”
Rock wren in Joshua Tree National Park. National Park Service / Jane Gamble A team from Cornell, the University of St. Andrews, and the American Bird Conservancy used land imaging data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments to distinguish among such specific bird habitats as open forests, dense shrublands, herbaceous croplands, and forest/cropland mosaics. They also drew on NASA weather information and water data that matched the dates and times when birders made their reports.
When combined with a 14-year set of eBird checklists — 36 million sets of species observations and counts, keyed directly to habitats — the satellite data gave researchers almost a strong foundation to produce a clear picture of the health of bird populations. But there was one missing piece.
Wrestling with Wren Data
While some eBird checklists come from expert birders who’ve hiked deep into wildlife preserves, others are sent in by novices watching bird feeders and doing the dishes. This creates what Cornell statistician Daniel Fink described as “an unstructured, very noisy data set,” complete with gaps in the landscape that birders did not reach and, ultimately, some missing birds.
To account for gaps where birds weren’t counted, the researchers trained machine learning models to fill in the maps based on the remote sensing data. “For every single species — say the rock wren — we’ve created a simulation that mimics the species and a variety of ways that it could respond to changes in the environment,” Johnston said. “Thousands of simulations underlie the results we showed.”
CornellLab eBird The researchers achieved unprecedented resolution, zeroing in on areas 12 miles by 12 miles (27 km by 27 km), the same area as Portland, Oregon. This new population counting method can also be applied to eBird data from other locations, Fink said. “Now we’re using modeling to track bird populations — not seasonally through the year, but acrossthe years — a major milestone,” he added.
“We’ve been able to take citizen science data and, through machine learning methodology, put it on the same footing as traditionally structured surveys, in terms of the type of signal we can find,” said Cornell science product manager Tom Auer. “It will increase the credibility and confidence of people who use this information for precise conservation all over the globe.”
The Up Side
Since 1970, North America has lost one-quarter of its breeding birds, following a global trend of declines across species. The causes range from increased pollution and land development to changing climate and decreased food resources. Efforts to reverse this loss depend on identifying the areas where birds live at highest risk, assessing their populations, and pinpointing locations where conservation could help most.
For 83% of the reported species in the new study, the decline was greatest in spots where populations had previously been most abundant — indicating problems with the habitat.
“Even in species where populations are declining a lot, there are still places of hope, where the populations are going up,” Johnston said. The team found population increases in the maps of 97% of the reported species. “That demonstrates that there’s opportunity for those species.”
“Birds face so many challenges,” said Cornell conservationist Amanda Rodewald. “This research will help us make strategic decisions about making changes that are precise, effective, and less costly. This is transformative. Now we can really drill in and know where specifically we’re going to be able to have the most positive impact in trying to stem bird declines.”
By Karen Romano Young
NASA Headquarters, Washington
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Last Updated Jun 25, 2025 Related Terms
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3 min read NASA Scientists Find Ties Between Earth’s Oxygen and Magnetic Field
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