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NASA Analysis Sees Spike in 2023 Global Sea Level Due to El Niño


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Sea level rise is affecting coastal communities around the world, especially those like Honolulu, pictured, that are located on islands.
NOAA Teacher at Sea Program, NOAA Ship HI’IALAKAI

A long-term sea level dataset shows ocean surface heights continuing to rise at faster and faster rates over decades of observations.

Global average sea level rose by about 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters) from 2022 to 2023, a relatively large jump due mostly to a warming climate and the development of a strong El Niño. The total rise is equivalent to draining a quarter of Lake Superior into the ocean over the course of a year.

This NASA-led analysis is based on a sea level dataset featuring more than 30 years of satellite observations, starting with the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon mission, which launched in 1992. The Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich mission, which launched in November 2020, is the latest in the series of satellites that have contributed to this sea level record.

The data shows that global average sea level has risen a total of about 4 inches (9.4 centimeters) since 1993. The rate of this increase has also accelerated, more than doubling from 0.07 inches (0.18 centimeters) per year in 1993 to the current rate of 0.17 inches (0.42 centimeters) per year.

e1-pia26183-sea-level-update-2023-1.png?
This graph shows global mean sea level (in blue) since 1993 as measured by a series of five satellites. The solid red line indicates the trajectory of this increase, which more than doubled over the past three decades. The dotted red line projects future sea level rise.
NASA/JPL-Caltech

“Current rates of acceleration mean that we are on track to add another 20 centimeters of global mean sea level by 2050, doubling the amount of change in the next three decades compared to the previous 100 years and increasing the frequency and impacts of floods across the world,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director for the NASA sea level change team and the ocean physics program in Washington.

Seasonal Effects

Global sea level saw a significant jump from 2022 to 2023 due mainly to a switch between La Niña and El Niño conditions. A mild La Niña from 2021 to 2022 resulted in a lower-than-expected rise in sea level that year. A strong El Niño developed in 2023, helping to boost the average amount of rise in sea surface height.

La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño involves warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Both periodic climate phenomena affect patterns of rainfall and snowfall as well as sea levels around the world.

“During La Niña, rain that normally falls in the ocean falls on the land instead, temporarily taking water out of the ocean and lowering sea levels,” said Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “In El Niño years, a lot of the rain that normally falls on land ends up in the ocean, which raises sea levels temporarily.”

This animation shows the rise in global mean sea level from 1993 to 2023 based on data from a series of five international satellites. The spike in sea level from 2022 to 2023 is mostly a consequence of climate change and the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Credit: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio

A Human Footprint

Seasonal or periodic climate phenomena can affect global average sea level from year to year. But the underlying trend for more than three decades has been increasing ocean heights as a direct response to global warming due to the excessive heat trapped by greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere.

“Long-term datasets like this 30-year satellite record allow us to differentiate between short-term effects on sea level, like El Niño, and trends that let us know where sea level is heading,” said Ben Hamlington, lead for NASA’s sea level change team at JPL.

These multidecadal observations wouldn’t be possible without ongoing international cooperation, as well as scientific and technical innovations by NASA and other space agencies. Specifically, radar altimeters have helped produce ever-more precise measurements of sea level around the world. To calculate ocean height, these instruments bounce microwave signals off the sea surface, recording the time the signal takes to travel from a satellite to Earth and back, as well as the strength of the return signal.

The researchers also periodically cross-check those sea level measurements against data from other sources. These include tide gauges, as well as satellite measurements of factors like atmospheric water vapor and Earth’s gravity field that can affect the accuracy of sea level measurements. Using that information, the researchers recalibrated the 30-year dataset, resulting in updates to sea levels in some previous years. That includes a sea level rise increase of 0.08 inches (0.21 centimeters) from 2021 to 2022.

When researchers combine space-based altimetry data of the oceans with more than a century of observations from surface-based sources, such as tide gauges, the information dramatically improves our understanding of how sea surface height is changing on a global scale. When these sea level measurements are combined with other information, including ocean temperature, ice loss, and land motion, scientists can decipher why and how seas are rising.

Learn more about sea level and climate change:

https://sealevel.nasa.gov/

News Media Contacts

Jane J. Lee / Andrew Wang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-0307 / 626-379-6874
jane.j.lee@jpl.nasa.gov / andrew.wang@jpl.nasa.gov

2024-031

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      This 45-second ultra-high-definition video was streamed via laser from deep space by NASA’s Deep Space Optical Communications technology demonstration on June 24, when the Psyche spacecraft was 240 million miles from Earth. NASA/JPL-Caltech The technology demonstration beamed the first ultra-high-definition video from space, featuring a cat named Taters, from the Psyche spacecraft to Earth on Dec. 11, 2023, from 19 million miles away. (Artwork, images, and videos were uploaded to Psyche and stored in its memory before launch.)
      “A key goal for the system was to prove that the data-rate reduction was proportional to the inverse square of distance,” said Abi Biswas, the technology demonstration’s project technologist at JPL. “We met that goal and transferred huge quantities of test data to and from the Psyche spacecraft via laser.” Almost 11 terabits of data have been downlinked during the first phase of the demo.
      The flight transceiver is powered down and will be powered back up on Nov. 4. That activity will prove that the flight hardware can operate for at least a year.
      “We’ll power on the flight laser transceiver and do a short checkout of its functionality,” said Ken Andrews, project flight operations lead at JPL. “Once that’s achieved, we can look forward to operating the transceiver at its full design capabilities during our post-conjunction phase that starts later in the year.”
      More About Deep Space Optical Communications
      This demonstration is the latest in a series of optical communication experiments funded by the Space Technology Mission Directorate’s Technology Demonstration Missions Program managed at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, and the agency’s SCaN (Space Communications and Navigation) program within the Space Operations Mission Directorate. Development of the flight laser transceiver is supported by MIT Lincoln Laboratory, L3 Harris, CACI, First Mode, and Controlled Dynamics Inc. Fibertek, Coherent, Caltech Optical Observatories, and Dotfast support the ground systems. Some of the technology was developed through NASA’s Small Business Innovation Research program.
      For more information about the laser communications demo, visit:
      https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/dsoc
      NASA’s Optical Comms Demo Transmits Data Over 140 Million Miles The NASA Cat Video Explained 5 Things to Know About NASA’s Deep Space Optical Communications News Media Contacts
      Ian J. O’Neill
      Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
      818-354-2649
      ian.j.oneill@jpl.nasa.gov
      2024-130
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      Last Updated Oct 03, 2024 Related Terms
      Deep Space Optical Communications (DSOC) Jet Propulsion Laboratory Psyche Mission Space Communications & Navigation Program Space Operations Mission Directorate Space Technology Mission Directorate Tech Demo Missions Explore More
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      NASA’s LRO: Lunar Ice Deposits are Widespread
      Deposits of ice in lunar dust and rock (regolith) are more extensive than previously thought, according to a new analysis of data from NASA’s LRO (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) mission. Ice would be a valuable resource for future lunar expeditions. Water could be used for radiation protection and supporting human explorers, or broken into its hydrogen and oxygen components to make rocket fuel, energy, and breathable air.
      Prior studies found signs of ice in the larger permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) near the lunar South Pole, including areas within Cabeus, Haworth, Shoemaker and Faustini craters. In the new work, “We find that there is widespread evidence of water ice within PSRs outside the South Pole, towards at least 77 degrees south latitude,” said Dr. Timothy P. McClanahan of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of a paper on this research published October 2 in the Planetary Science Journal.
      The study further aids lunar mission planners by providing maps and identifying the surface characteristics that show where ice is likely and less likely to be found, with evidence for why that should be. “Our model and analysis show that greatest ice concentrations are expected to occur near the PSRs’ coldest locations below 75 Kelvin (-198°C or -325°F) and near the base of the PSRs’ poleward-facing slopes,” said McClanahan.
      This illustration shows the distribution of permanently shadowed regions (in blue) on the Moon poleward of 80 degrees South latitude. They are superimposed on a digital elevation map of the lunar surface (grey) from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter instrument on board NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft. NASA/GSFC/Timothy P. McClanahan “We can’t accurately determine the volume of the PSRs’ ice deposits or identify if they might be buried under a dry layer of regolith. However, we expect that for each surface 1.2 square yards (square meter) residing over these deposits there should be at least about five more quarts (five more liters) of ice within the surface top 3.3 feet (meter), as compared to their surrounding areas,” said McClanahan. The study also mapped where fewer, smaller, or lower-concentration ice deposits would be expected, occurring primarily towards warmer, periodically illuminated areas.
      Ice could become implanted in lunar regolith through comet and meteor impacts, released as vapor (gas) from the lunar interior, or be formed by chemical reactions between hydrogen in the solar wind and oxygen in the regolith. PSRs typically occur in topographic depressions near the lunar poles. Because of the low Sun angle, these areas haven’t seen sunlight for up to billions of years, so are perpetually in extreme cold. Ice molecules are thought to be repeatedly dislodged from the regolith by meteorites, space radiation, or sunlight and travel across the lunar surface until they land in a PSR where they are entrapped by extreme cold. The PSR’s continuously cold surfaces can preserve ice molecules near the surface for perhaps billions of years, where they may accumulate into a deposit that is rich enough to mine. Ice is thought to be quickly lost on surfaces that are exposed to direct sunlight, which precludes their accumulations.  
      The team used LRO’s Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) instrument to detect signs of ice deposits by measuring moderate-energy, “epithermal” neutrons. Specifically, the team used LEND’s Collimated Sensor for Epithermal Neutrons (CSETN) that has a fixed 18.6-mile (30-kilometer) diameter field-of-view. Neutrons are created by high-energy galactic cosmic rays that come from powerful deep-space events such as exploding stars, that impact the lunar surface, break up regolith atoms, and scatter subatomic particles called neutrons. The neutrons, which can originate from up to about a 3.3-foot (meter’s) depth, ping-pong their way through the regolith, running into other atoms. Some get directed into space, where they can be detected by LEND.  Since hydrogen is about the same mass as a neutron, a collision with hydrogen causes the neutron to lose relatively more energy than a collision with most common regolith elements. So, where hydrogen is present in regolith, its concentration creates a corresponding reduction in the observed number of moderate-energy neutrons.
      “We hypothesized that if all PSRs have the same hydrogen concentration, then CSETN should proportionally detect their hydrogen concentrations as a function of their areas. So, more hydrogen should be observed towards the larger-area PSRs,” said McClanahan.
      The model was developed from a theoretical study that demonstrated how similarly hydrogen-enhanced PSRs would be detected by CSETNs fixed-area field-of-view. The correlation was demonstrated using the neutron emissions from 502 PSRs with areas ranging from 1.5 square miles (4 km2) to 417 square miles (1079 km2) that contrasted against their surrounding less hydrogen-enhanced areas. The correlation was expectedly weak for the small PSRs but increased towards the larger-area PSRs.
      The research was sponsored by the LRO project science team, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center’s Artificial Intelligence Working Group, and NASA grant award number 80GSFC21M0002. The study was conducted using NASA’s LRO Diviner radiometer and Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter instruments. The LEND instrument was developed by the Russian Space Agency, Roscosmos by its Space Research Institute (IKI). LEND was integrated to the LRO spacecraft at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. LRO is managed by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
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      Last Updated Oct 03, 2024 Editor wasteigerwald Contact wasteigerwald william.a.steigerwald@nasa.gov Location Goddard Space Flight Center Related Terms
      Earth’s Moon Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Uncategorized Explore More
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