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El análisis de la NASA confirma que 2023 fue el año más cálido registrado


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Data visualization of global temperature anomalies progressing from 1880 to 2023 mapped onto Earth. The map uses color to represent anomalies, ranging from blue for below average temperatures, white for temperatures at baseline, and yellows ranging through oranges and reds to represent higher and higher than average temperatures. At the beginning of the time series, the map is primarily blues and whites, with a few spots of yellow, indicating that temperatures overall are below the baseline. As time progresses, the colors shift and move, with less and less blue and white and more and more yellow, then orange, and red. By 2023, the map is mostly yellow with lots of orange and red. The Arctic region, Europe, Asia, North America, central South America, and the Antarctic peninsula are all dark red, indicating the highest temperature anomalies.
Este mapa de la Tierra en 2023 muestra las anomalías de la temperatura global de la superficie, es decir, cuánto más cálida o más fría estuvo cada región del planeta en comparación con el promedio del período de 1951 a 1980. Las temperaturas normales se muestran en blanco, las superiores a las normales en rojo y naranja, y las inferiores a las normales en azul. Una versión animada de este mapa muestra la evolución de las anomalías de la temperatura global a lo largo del tiempo, desde 1880. Descarga esta visualización del Estudio de Visualización Científica Goddard de la NASA: https://svsdev.gsfc.nasa.gov/5207.
Credits: Estudio de Visualización Científica del Centro Goddard de la NASA

Read this release in English here.

En el año 2023, la temperatura promedio de la superficie de la Tierra fue la más cálida que se haya registrado, según un análisis de la NASA. Las temperaturas globales del año pasado estuvieron alrededor de 1,2 grados Celsius (2,1 grados Fahrenheit) por encima del promedio para el período de referencia de la NASA (de 1951 a 1980), informaron científicos del Instituto Goddard de Investigaciones Espaciales (GISS, por sus siglas en inglés) de la NASA en Nueva York.

“El informe de la temperatura global de la NASA y la NOAA confirma lo que miles de millones de personas alrededor del mundo experimentaron el año pasado: estamos frente a una crisis climática”, dijo el administrador de la NASA Bill Nelson. “Desde calor extremo, a incendios forestales, hasta el aumento del nivel del mar, podemos ver que nuestra Tierra está cambiando. Todavía queda trabajo por hacer, pero el presidente Biden y comunidades de todo Estados Unidos están tomando más medidas que nunca para reducir los riesgos climáticos y ayudar a las comunidades a ser más resistentes, y la NASA seguirá utilizando nuestra posición estratégica en el espacio para traer a la Tierra datos climáticos críticos que sean comprensibles y accesibles para todas las personas. La NASA y la Administración Biden-Harris están trabajando para proteger nuestro planeta y a sus habitantes, para esta generación y para la siguiente”.

En 2023, cientos de millones de personas en todo el planeta experimentaron calor extremo, y cada mes, de junio a diciembre, estableció un récord mundial para el mes respectivo. Julio fue el mes más caluroso jamás registrado. En general, la Tierra fue alrededor de 1,4 grados Celsius (o unos 2,5 grados Fahrenheit) más calurosa en 2023 que el promedio de finales del siglo XIX, cuando comenzó el mantenimiento de los registros modernos.

“El calentamiento excepcional que estamos experimentando no es algo que hayamos visto en la historia de la humanidad”, dijo Gavin Schmidt, director del GISS. “Se debe principalmente a nuestras emisiones de combustibles fósiles, y estamos observando sus impactos en las olas de calor, las lluvias intensas y las inundaciones costeras”.

Si bien los científicos tienen pruebas concluyentes de que la tendencia del planeta al calentamiento a largo plazo está impulsada por la actividad humana, siguen examinando otros fenómenos que pueden afectar los cambios anuales o plurianuales del clima, como El Niño, los aerosoles y la contaminación, y las erupciones volcánicas.

Normalmente, la mayor fuente de variabilidad interanual es el patrón climático oceánico El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, en el océano Pacífico. El patrón tiene dos fases, El Niño y La Niña, cuando las temperaturas de la superficie del mar a lo largo del ecuador cambian entre temperaturas más cálidas, promedio y más frías. En el período de 2020 a 2022, el océano Pacífico experimentó tres fenómenos consecutivos de La Niña, los cuales tienden a enfriar las temperaturas globales. En mayo de 2023, el océano pasó de La Niña a El Niño, lo que a menudo coincide con los años más calurosos en los registros.

Sin embargo, las temperaturas récord en la segunda mitad de 2023 ocurrieron antes del pico del actual fenómeno de El Niño. Los científicos esperan observar los mayores impactos de El Niño en febrero, marzo y abril.

Line graph with monthly temperature anomalies from each year from 1880 to 2023 growing across the graph to create a stacked bell shape. The Y-axis is labeled negative 3 degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius and the X-axis has each month from January to December. As time goes on, the curved lines seem to stack higher and higher, and the colors of the lines change from white and light blue to light red, and then dark red. The 2023 line, a thicker red line than the others, rises high above the rest, especially starting in May and running through December, where there is space between it and the rest of the years.
Esta visualización de datos, que se actualiza mensualmente, muestra el ciclo estacional de variación de la temperatura en la superficie de la Tierra, y cómo esas temperaturas se desvían de la media entre 1951 y 1980. Los datos proceden del Análisis de la Temperatura Superficial del GISS y son de acceso público aquí. Las desviaciones estacionales de temperatura se basan en los datos del reanálisis MERRA-2 aquí.
Credits: Estudio de Visualización Científica del Centro Goddard de la NASA

Los científicos también han investigado los posibles impactos de la erupción de enero de 2022 del volcán submarino Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, el cual arrojó vapor de agua y partículas finas, o aerosoles, a la estratosfera. Un estudio reciente descubrió que los aerosoles volcánicos, al reflejar la luz solar lejos de la superficie de la Tierra, provocaron un ligero enfriamiento general de unos 0,1 grados Celsius (menos de 0,2 grados Fahrenheit) en el hemisferio sur después de la erupción.

“Incluso con factores de enfriamiento ocasionales, como volcanes o aerosoles, seguiremos batiendo récords mientras las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero sigan aumentando”, afirmó Schmidt. “Y, desafortunadamente, el año pasado nuevamente volvimos a establecer un nuevo récord de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero”.

“El año récord de 2023 subraya la importancia de tomar medidas urgentes y continuadas para hacer frente al cambio climático”, declaró Pam Melroy, administradora adjunta de la NASA. “La legislación reciente ha proporcionado la mayor inversión climática del gobierno de EE.UU., incluyendo miles de millones para fortalecer la resiliencia de EE.UU. a los crecientes impactos de la crisis climática. En su calidad de agencia centrada en el estudio de nuestro clima cambiante, la flota de satélites de observación de la Tierra de la NASA seguirá proporcionando datos críticos de nuestro planeta a escala para ayudar a toda la gente a tomar decisiones informadas”.

Ciencia abierta en acción

La NASA prepara su registro de temperaturas utilizando los datos de la temperatura del aire de la superficie recopilados de decenas de miles de estaciones meteorológicas, así como datos de la temperatura de la superficie del mar adquiridos por instrumentos en barcos y boyas. Estos datos son analizados utilizando métodos que toman en cuenta el variado distanciamiento de las estaciones de temperatura en todo el mundo y los efectos del calor urbano que podrían sesgar los cálculos.

Los análisis independientes de la Administración Nacional Oceánica y Atmosférica (NOAA, por sus siglas en inglés) y el Centro Hadley (parte de la Oficina Meteorológica del Reino Unido) concluyeron que las temperaturas globales de la superficie para 2023 fueron las más altas desde que comenzaron los registros modernos. Estos científicos utilizan gran parte de los mismos datos de temperatura en sus análisis, pero emplean diferentes metodologías. Aunque las clasificaciones pueden diferir ligeramente entre los registros, estos coinciden en términos generales y muestran el mismo calentamiento continuo a largo plazo en las últimas décadas.

Aprovechando medio siglo de investigaciones, observaciones, y modelos, la Administración Biden-Harris, incluyendo la NASA y varios socios federales, recientemente lanzaron el Centro de Gases de Efecto Invernadero de EE.UU. para que los responsables de la toma de decisiones y los ciudadanos puedan acceder fácilmente a datos climáticos críticos. Este centro apoya la colaboración entre agencias gubernamentales de EE.UU. y socios del sector privado y organizaciones sin fines de lucro, para poner a disposición en línea datos aéreos, terrestres y espaciales y recursos.

El conjunto completo de datos de la NASA sobre las temperaturas de la superficie global hasta 2023, así como los detalles con el código de cómo los científicos de la NASA llevaron a cabo sus análisis, están disponibles públicamente en el GISS. GISS es un laboratorio de la NASA administrado por la División de Ciencias de la Tierra en el Centro de Vuelo Espacial Goddard de la agencia en Greenbelt, Maryland. Este laboratorio está afiliado al instituto de la Tierra y la Escuela de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas de la Universidad de Columbia en Nueva York.

Para más información sobre la NASA, visita:

https://www.nasa.gov/es

María José Viñas / Karen Fox
Sede, Washington
240-458-0248 / 202-358-1600
maria-jose.vinasgarcia@nasa.gov / karen.fox@nasa.gov

Peter Jacobs
Centro de Vuelo Espacial Goddard de la NASA
Greenbelt, MD
301-286-0535
peter.jacobs@nasa.gov

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