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NASA’s Apollo Samples, LRO Help Scientists Predict Moonquakes

A grayscale image shows an uneven surface with various textures, including smooth areas, ridges, and depressions. The surface features several small, round indentations, as well as larger, irregularly shaped mounds and valleys. A thin, winding line crosses diagonally through the image, resembling a fissure or channel. A small white
This mosaic of the Taurus-Littrow valley was made using images from the Narrow Angle Cameras onboard NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. The orbiter has been circling and studying the Moon since 2009. The ancient-lava-filled valley is cut by the Lee-Lincoln thrust fault, visible as a sinuous, white line extending from South Massif (mountain in the bottom left corner) to North Massif (mountain in the top center) where the fault abruptly changes direction and cuts along the slope of North Massif. The Lee-Lincoln fault has been the source of multiple strong moonquakes causing landslides and boulder falls on both North and South massifs. The approximate location of the Apollo 17 landing site is indicated to the right of the fault with a white “x”.
NASA/ASU/Smithsonian

As NASA prepares to send astronauts to the surface of the Moon’s south polar region for the first time ever during the Artemis III mission, scientists are working on methods to determine the frequency of moonquakes along active faults there.

Faults are cracks in the Moon’s crust that indicate that the Moon is slowly shrinking as its interior cools over time. The contraction from shrinking causes the faults to move suddenly, which generates quakes. Between 1969 and 1977, a network of seismometers deployed by Apollo astronauts on the Moon’s surface recorded thousands of vibrations from moonquakes.

Moonquakes are rare, with the most powerful ones, about magnitude 5.0, occurring near the surface. These types of quakes are much weaker than powerful quakes on Earth (magnitude 7.0 or higher), posing little risk to astronauts during a mission lasting just a few days. But their effects on longer-term lunar surface assets could be significant. Unlike an earthquake that lasts for tens of seconds to minutes, a moonquake can last for hours, enough time to damage or tip over structures, destabilize launch vehicles on the surface, or interrupt surface operations.

“The hazard probability goes way up depending on how close your infrastructure is to an active fault,” said Thomas Watters, senior scientist emeritus at the Smithsonian’s National Air & Space Museum in Washington.

Watters is a long-time researcher of lunar geology and a co-investigator on NASA’s LRO (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) camera. Recently, he and Nicholas Schmerr, a planetary seismologist at the University of Maryland in College Park, developed a new method for estimating the magnitude of seismic shaking by analyzing evidence of dislodged boulders and landslides in an area, as the scientists reported on July 30 in the journal Science Advances. Studies like these can help NASA plan lunar surface assets in safer locations.

Unlike an earthquake that lasts for tens of seconds to minutes, a moonquake can last for hours, enough time to damage or tip over structures, destabilize launch vehicles on the surface, or interrupt surface operations.

There are thousands of faults across the Moon that may still be active and producing quakes. Watters and his team have identified these faults by analyzing data from LRO, which has been circling the Moon since 2009, mapping the surface and taking pictures, providing unprecedented detail of features like faults, boulders, and landslides.

For this study, Watters and Schmerr chose to analyze surface changes from quakes generated by the Lee-Lincoln fault in the Taurus-Littrow valley. NASA’s Apollo 17 astronauts, who landed about 4 miles west of the fault on Dec. 11, 1972, explored the area around the fault during their mission.

By studying boulder falls and a landslide likely dislodged by ground shaking near Lee Lincoln, Watters and Schmerr estimated that a magnitude 3.0 moonquake — similar to a relatively minor earthquake — occurs along the Lee Lincoln fault about every 5.6 million years.

“One of the things we’re learning from the Lee-Lincoln fault is that many similar faults have likely had multiple quakes spread out over millions of years,” Schmerr said. “This means that they are potentially still active today and may keep generating more moonquakes in the future.”

The authors chose to study the Lee-Lincoln fault because it offered a unique advantage: Apollo 17 astronauts brought back samples of boulders from the area. By studying these samples in labs, scientists were able to measure changes in the boulders’ chemistry caused by exposure to cosmic radiation over time (the boulder surface is freshly exposed after breaking off a larger rock that would have otherwise shielded it).

This cosmic radiation exposure information helped the researchers determine how long the boulders had been sitting in their current locations, which in turn helped inform the estimate of possible timing and frequency of quakes along the Lee-Lincoln fault.

A person wearing a bulky, white spacesuit is partially visible on the left side of the image, extending a gloved hand toward a large, rough-textured, gray boulder. The boulder has a dusty, uneven surface with cracks and crevices. The person and boulder are lit up, while the background is mostly black. The person’s shadow provides a black shape cast on the boulder, highlighting the contours of both the boulder and the person.
This 1972 image shows Apollo 17 astronaut Harrison H. Schmitt sampling a boulder at the base of North Massif in the Taurus-Littrow valley on the Moon. This large boulder is believed to have been dislodged by a strong moonquake that occurred about 28.5 million years ago. The source of the quake was likely a seismic event along the Lee-Lincoln fault. The picture was taken by astronaut Eugene A. Cernan, Apollo 17 commander.
NASA/JSC/ASU

Apollo 17 astronauts investigated the boulders at the bases of two mountains in the valley. The tracks left behind indicated that the boulders may have rolled downhill after being shaken loose during a moonquake on the fault. Using the size of each boulder, Watters and Schmerr estimated how hard the ground shaking would have been and the magnitude of the quake that would have caused the boulders to break free.

The team also estimated the seismic shaking and quake magnitude that would be needed to trigger the large landslide that sent material rushing across the valley floor, suggesting that this incident caused the rupture event that formed the Lee-Lincoln fault.

A computer simulation depicting the seismic waves emanating from a shallow moonquake on the Lee-Lincoln fault in the Taurus-Littrow valley on the Moon. The label “A17” marks the Apollo 17 landing site. The audio represents a moonquake that was recorded by a seismometer placed on the surface by astronauts. The seismic signal is converted into sound. Both audio and video are sped up to play 10 times faster than normal. The background image is a globe mosaic image from NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter’s Wide-Angle Camera. Red and blue are positive (upward ground motion) and negative (downward ground motion) polarities of the wave.
Nicholas Schmerr

Taking all these factors into account, Watters and Schmerr estimated that the chances that a quake would have shaken the Taurus-Littrow valley on any given day while the Apollo 17 astronauts were there are 1 in 20 million, the authors noted.

Their findings from the Lee-Lincoln fault are just the beginning. Watters and Schmerr now plan to use their new technique to analyze quake frequency at faults in the Moon’s south polar region, where NASA plans to explore.

NASA also is planning to send more seismometers to the Moon. First, the Farside Seismic Suite will deliver two sensitive seismometers to Schrödinger basin on the far side of the Moon onboard a lunar lander as part of NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative. Additionally, NASA is developing a payload, called the Lunar Environment Monitoring Station, for potential flight on NASA’s Artemis III mission to the South Pole region. Co-led by Schmerr, the payload will assess seismic risks for future human and robotic missions to the region.

For more information on NASA’s LRO, visit:

Media Contacts:

Karen Fox / Molly Wasser

Headquarters, Washington

202-358-1600 

karen.c.fox@nasa.gov / molly.l.wasser@nasa.gov

Lonnie Shekhtman

NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

lonnie.shekhtman@nasa.gov

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Lonnie Shekhtman

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      Pohren continues to use NASA training and data to advance reservoir management. He’s currently exploring an ARSET training on how the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will further improve the system by allowing DINAGUA to directly measure the height of water in reservoirs. He is also following NASA’s new joint mission with ISRO (the Indian Space Research Organization) called NISAR, which launched on July 30. The NISAR satellite will provide radar data that detects changes in water extent, regardless of cloud cover or time of day. “If a drought happens again,” Pohren said, “with the tools that we have now, we will be much more prepared to understand what the conditions of the basin are and then make predictions.”
      Environmental engineer Tiago Pohren conducts a field inspection on the Canelón Grande reservoir, the second-largest reservoir serving Montevideo, during the drought. Tiago Pohren By Melody Pederson, Rachel Jiang
      The authors would like to thank Noelia Gonzalez, Perry Oddo, Denise Hill, and Delfina Iervolino for interview support as well as Jerry Weigel for connecting with Tiago about the tool’s development.
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      Last Updated Sep 10, 2025 Related Terms
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      While auroras are a beautiful sight on Earth, the solar activity that causes them can wreak havoc with space-based infrastructure like satellites. Using artificial intelligence to predict these disruptive solar events was a focus of KX’s work with FDL.Credit: Sebastian Saarloos In the summer of 2024, people across North America were amazed when auroras lit up the night sky across their hometowns, but the same solar activity that makes auroras can cause disruptions to satellites that are essential to systems on Earth. The solution to predicting these solar events and warning satellite operators may come through artificial intelligence. 

      The Frontier Development Lab of Mountain View, California, is an ongoing partnership between NASA and commercial AI firms to apply advanced machine learning to problems that matter to the agency and beyond. Since 2016, the Frontier Development Lab has applied AI on behalf of NASA in planetary defense, Heliophysics, Earth science, medicine, and lunar exploration.

      Through a collaboration with a company called KX Systems, the Frontier Development Lab looked to use proven software in an innovative new way. The company’s flagship data analytics software, called kdb+, is typically used in the financial industry to keep track of rapid shifts in market trends, but the company was exploring how it could be used in space. 

      Between 2017 and 2019, KX Systems participated in the Frontier Development Lab partnership through NASA’s Ames Research Center in Silicon Valley, California. Working with NASA scientists, KX applied the capabilities of kdb+ to searching for exoplanets and predicting space weather, areas which could be improved with AI models. One question the Frontier Development Lab worked to answer was whether kdb+ could forecast the kind of space weather that creates the auroras to predict when GPS satellites might experience signal interruption due to the Sun.

      By importing several datasets monitoring the ionosphere, solar activity, and Earth’s magnetic field, then applying machine learning algorithms to them, the Frontier Development Lab researchers were able to predict disruptive events up to 24 hours in advance. 

      While this was a scientific application of AI, KX Systems says some of this development work has made it back into its commercial offerings, as there are similarities between AI models developed to find patterns in satellite signal losses and ones that predict maintenance needs for industrial manufacturing equipment.

      A division of FD Technologies plc., KX Systems is a technology company that offers database management and analytics software for customers that need to make decisions quickly. While KX started in 1993, its AI-driven business has grown considerably, and the company credits work done with NASA for accelerating some of its capabilities.

      From protecting valuable satellites to keeping manufacturing lines moving at top performance, pairing NASA’s expertise with commercial ingenuity is a combination for success.  
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      These maps of Prince George’s County, MD, show surface temperatures collected a few hours apart on July 30, 2023 from the Landsat 9 satellite and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) instrument. The dark blue spots in the right hand image are likely clouds that formed in the afternoon.Credit: Stephanie Schollaert Uz, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Thousands of Americans are impacted each summer by excessive heat and humidity, some suffering from heat-related illnesses when the body can’t cool itself down. Data from NASA satellites could help local governments reduce the sweltering risks, thanks to a collaboration between NASA scientists and officials in Prince George’s County, Maryland. The effort demonstrates how local officials in other communities could turn to NASA data to inform decisions that provide residents with relief from summer heat.
      NASA researchers and their Prince George’s County collaborators reported in Frontiers in Environmental Science that they used the Landsat 8 satellite, jointly operated by NASA and the US Geological Survey, and NASA’s Aqua satellite, to gain insight into surface temperature trends across the county over the past few decades. The data also show how temperatures have responded to changing land use and construction. It is information that county planners and environmental experts hope can aid them in their attempts to remediate and prevent heat dangers in the future. The collaboration may also help the county’s first responders anticipate and prepare for heat-related emergencies and injuries.
      Cooperation with Prince George’s County expands on NASA’s historic role, said Stephanie Schollaert Uz, an applications scientist with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and one of the study authors. “Applying government satellite data to county-level problems is new here. We’re trying to make it easier for people outside of NASA to use our data, in part by including how-to guides referenced at the end of our paper,” Schollaert Uz said.
      In the long run, county officials hope to use NASA satellites to track the negative health impacts that arise from land use and modification. Removal of tree cover and the construction of non-permeable roads, parking lots, and structures that lead to water runoff are among the factors that create heat islands, where temperatures in localized areas soar relative to the surrounding landscape. In addition to the direct dangers of heat for county residents and workers, areas with higher-than-normal temperatures can drive intense local weather events.
      “There’s potentially a greater incidence of microbursts,” said Mary Abe of Prince George’s County’s sustainability division. “The atmosphere can become supercharged over hot spots,” causing high winds and flood-inducing rains.
      Prince George’s County planners anticipate relying on NASA satellites to determine where residents and county employees are at greater risk, predict how future construction could impact heat dangers, and develop strategies to moderate heat in areas currently experiencing elevated summer temperatures. Efforts might include protecting existing trees and planting new ones. It could include replacing impermeable surfaces (cement, pavement, etc.) with alternatives that let water soak into the ground rather than running off into storm drains. To verify and calibrate the satellite observations crucial for such planning, county experts are considering enlisting residents to act as citizen scientists to collect temperature and weather data on the ground, Abe said.
      Eventually, the NASA satellite temperature data could also lead to strategies to curb insect-borne diseases, said Evelyn Hoban, associate director for the Prince George’s County division of environmental health and communicable disease. “Once we know where the higher temperatures are, we can check to see if they create mosquito or tick breeding grounds,” said Hoban, who coauthored the study. “We could then focus our outreach and education, and perhaps prevention efforts, on areas of greater heat and risk.”
      A NASA guide is available to aid other communities who hope to duplicate the Prince George’s County study. The guide provides introductions on a variety of NASA satellite and ground-based weather station data. Instructions for downloading and analyzing the data are illustrated in an accompanying tutorial that uses the Prince George’s County study as an example for other communities to follow on their own.
      One of the greatest benefits of the collaboration, Abe said, is the boost in credibility that comes from incorporating NASA resources and expertise in the county’s efforts to improve safety and health. “It’s partly the NASA brand. People recognize it and they’re really intrigued by it,” she said. “Working with NASA builds confidence that the decision-making process is based firmly in science.”
      By James Riordon
      NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
      Media contact: Elizabeth Vlock
      NASA Headquarters
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