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By NASA
6 min read
NASA, IBM’s ‘Hot’ New AI Model Unlocks Secrets of Sun
This image from June 20, 2013 shows the bright light of a solar flare and an eruption of solar material shooting through the sun’s atmosphere, called a prominence eruption. Shortly thereafter, this same region of the sun sent a coronal mass ejection out into space — a phenomenon which can cause magnetic storms that degrade communication signals and cause unexpected electrical surges in power grids on Earth. NASA’s new heliophysics AI foundation model, Surya, can help predict these storms. NASA/Goddard/SDO NASA is turning up the heat in solar science with the launch of the Surya Heliophysics Foundational Model, an artificial intelligence (AI) model trained on 14 years of observations from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory.
Developed by NASA in partnership with IBM and others, Surya uses advances in AI to analyze vast amounts of solar data, helping scientists better understand solar eruptions and predict space weather that threatens satellites, power grids, and communication systems. The model can be used to provide early warnings to satellite operators and helps scientists predict how the Sun’s ultraviolet output affects Earth’s upper atmosphere.
Preliminary results show Surya is making strides in solar flare forecasting, a long-standing challenge in heliophysics. Surya, with its ability to generate visual predictions of solar flares two hours into the future, marks a major step towards the use of AI for operational space weather prediction. These initial results surpass existing benchmarks by 15%. By providing open access to the model on HuggingFace and the code on GitHub, NASA encourages the science and applications community to test and explore this AI model for innovative solutions that leverage the unique value of continuous, stable, long-duration datasets from the Solar Dynamics Observatory.
Illustrations of Solar Dynamics Observatory solar imagery used for training Surya: Solar coronal ultraviolet and extreme ultraviolet images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and solar surface velocity and magnetic field maps from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). NASA/SDO The model’s success builds directly on the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s long-term database. Launched in 2010, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory has provided an unbroken, high-resolution record of the Sun for nearly 15 years through capturing images every 12 seconds in multiple wavelengths, plus precise magnetic field measurements. This stable, well-calibrated dataset, spanning an entire solar cycle, is uniquely suited for training AI models like Surya, enabling them to detect subtle patterns in solar behavior that shorter datasets would miss.
Surya’s strength lies in its foundation model architecture, which learns directly from raw solar data. Unlike traditional AI systems that require extensive labeling, Surya can adapt quickly to new tasks and applications. Applications include tracking active regions, forecasting flare activity, predicting solar wind speed, and integrating data from other observatories including the joint NASA-ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission and NASA’s Parker Solar Probe.
“We are advancing data-driven science by embedding NASA’s deep scientific expertise into cutting-edge AI models,” said Kevin Murphy, chief science data officer at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “By developing a foundation model trained on NASA’s heliophysics data, we’re making it easier to analyze the complexities of the Sun’s behavior with unprecedented speed and precision. This model empowers broader understanding of how solar activity impacts critical systems and technologies that we all rely on here on Earth.”
These images compare the ground-truth data (right) with model output (center) for solar flares, which are the events behind most space weather. Surya’s prediction is very close to what happened in reality (right). These preliminary results suggest that Surya has learned enough solar physics to predict the structure and evolution of a solar flare by looking at its beginning phase. NASA/SDO/ODSI IMPACT AI Team Solar storms pose significant risks to our technology-dependent society. Powerful solar events energize Earth’s ionosphere, resulting in substantial GPS errors or complete signal loss to satellite communications. They also pose risks to power grids, as geomagnetically induced currents from coronal mass ejections can overload transformers and trigger widespread outages.
In commercial aviation, solar flares can disrupt radio communications and navigation systems while exposing high-altitude flights to increased radiation. The stakes are even higher for human spaceflight. Astronauts bound for the Moon or Mars may need to depend on precise predictions to shelter from intense radiation during solar particle events.
The Sun’s influence extends to the growing number of low Earth orbit satellites, including those that deliver global high-speed internet. As solar activity intensifies, it heats Earth’s upper atmosphere, increasing drag that slows satellites, pulls them from orbit, and causes premature reentry. Satellite operators often struggle to forecast where and when solar flares might affect these satellites.
The “ground truth” solar activity is shown on the top row. The bottom row shows solar activity predicted by Surya. NASA/SDO/ODSI IMPACT AI Team “Our society is built on technologies that are highly susceptible to space weather,” said Joseph Westlake, Heliophysics Division director at NASA Headquarters. “Just as we use meteorology to forecast Earth’s weather, space weather forecasts predict the conditions and events in the space environment that can affect Earth and our technologies. Applying AI to data from our heliophysics missions is a vital step in increasing our space weather defense to protect astronauts and spacecraft, power grids and GPS, and many other systems that power our modern world.”
While Surya is designed to study the Sun, its architecture and methodology are adaptable across scientific domains. From planetary science to Earth observation, the project lays the foundational infrastructure for similar AI efforts in diverse domains.
Surya is part of a broader NASA push to develop open-access, AI-powered science tools. Both the model and training datasets are freely available online to researchers, educators, and students worldwide, lowering barriers to participation and sparking new discoveries.
The process for creating Surya. Foundation models enhance the utility of NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory datasets and create a base for building new applications. NASA/ODSI IMPACT AI Team Surya’s training was supported in part by the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource (NAIRR) Pilot, a National Science Foundation (NSF)-led initiative that provides researchers with access to advanced computing, datasets, and AI tools. The NAIRR Pilot brings together federal and industry resources, such as computing power from NVIDIA, to expand access to the infrastructure needed for cutting-edge AI research.
“This project shows how the NAIRR Pilot is uniting federal and industry AI resources to accelerate scientific breakthroughs,” said Katie Antypas, director of NSF’s Office of Advanced Cyberinfrastructure. “With support from NVIDIA and NSF, we’re not only enabling today’s research, we’re laying the groundwork for a national AI network to drive tomorrow’s discoveries.”
Surya is part of a larger effort championed and supported by NASA’s Office of the Chief Science Data Officer and Heliophysics Division, the NSF , and partnering universities to advance NASA’s scientific missions through innovative data science and AI models. Surya’s AI architecture was jointly developed by the Interagency Implementation and Advanced Concepts Team (IMPACT) under the Office of Data Science and Informatics at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama; IBM; and a collaborative science team.
The science team, assembled by NASA Headquarters, consisted of experts from the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas; the University of Alabama in Huntsville in Huntsville, Alabama; the University of Colorado Boulder in Boulder, Colorado; Georgia State University in Atlanta, Georgia; Princeton University in Princeton, New Jersey; NASA’s SMD’s Heliophysics Division; NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California; and the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California.
For a behind-the-scenes dive into Surya’s architecture, industry and academic collaborations, challenges behind developing the model, read the blog post on NASA’s Science Data Portal:
https://science.data.nasa.gov/features-events/inside-surya-solar-ai-model
For more information about NASA’s strategy of developing foundation models for science, visit:
https://science.nasa.gov/artificial-intelligence-science
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Last Updated Aug 20, 2025 Related Terms
Science & Research Artificial Intelligence (AI) Heliophysics Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) The Sun The Sun & Solar Physics Explore More
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By European Space Agency
Europe’s forests play a crucial role in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but research led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has found their capacity to absorb carbon dioxide has declined in the past decade.
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By European Space Agency
Video: 00:07:00 Highlights and liftoff of Vega-C flight VV27 from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana, at 23:03 local time on 25 July (03:03 BST/04:03 CEST on 26 July).
Flight VV27 was operated by Arianespace and launched Airbus’s four CO3D satellites and the French space agency CNES MicroCarb mission.
The four small satellites in the CO3D constellation (an abbreviation of the French 'Constellation Optique en 3D') are set to map the globe in three dimensions from low Earth orbit, to serve public and private sector needs.
MicroCarb is designed to map sources and sinks of carbon dioxide on a global scale. ESA coordinated and procured the launch of MicroCarb on behalf of the European Commission, as part of its In-Orbit Demonstration / In-Orbit Validation (IOD/IOV) programme.
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By NASA
Scientists predict one of the major surveys by NASA’s upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope may reveal around 100,000 celestial blasts, ranging from exploding stars to feeding black holes. Roman may even find evidence of some of the universe’s first stars, which are thought to completely self-destruct without leaving any remnant behind.
This simulation showcases the dynamic universe as NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope could see it over the course of its five-year primary mission. The video sparkles with synthetic supernovae from observations of the OpenUniverse simulated universe taken every five days (similar to the expected cadence of Roman’s High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey, which OpenUniverse simulates in its entirety). On top of the static sky of stars in the Milky Way and other galaxies, more than a million exploding stars flare into visibility and then slowly fade away. To highlight the dynamic physics happening and for visibility at this scale, the true brightness of each transient event has been magnified by a factor of 10,000 and no background light has been added to the simulated images. The video begins with Roman’s full field of view, which represents a single pointing of Roman’s camera, and then zooms into one square.Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and M. Troxel Cosmic explosions offer clues to some of the biggest mysteries of the universe. One is the nature of dark energy, the mysterious pressure thought to be accelerating the universe’s expansion.
“Whether you want to explore dark energy, dying stars, galactic powerhouses, or probably even entirely new things we’ve never seen before, this survey will be a gold mine,” said Benjamin Rose, an assistant professor at Baylor University in Waco, Texas, who led a study about the results. The paper is published in The Astrophysical Journal.
Called the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey, this observation program will scan the same large region of the cosmos every five days for two years. Scientists will stitch these observations together to create movies that uncover all sorts of cosmic fireworks.
Chief among them are exploding stars. The survey is largely geared toward finding a special class of supernova called type Ia. These stellar cataclysms allow scientists to measure cosmic distances and trace the universe’s expansion because they peak at about the same intrinsic brightness. Figuring out how fast the universe has ballooned during different cosmic epochs offers clues to dark energy.
This landscape of “mountains” and “valleys” speckled with glittering stars is actually the edge of a nearby, young, star-forming region called NGC 3324 in the Carina Nebula. Captured in infrared light by NASA’s new James Webb Space Telescope, this image reveals for the first time previously invisible areas of star birth.Credit: NASA, ESA, CSA, and STScI In the new study, scientists simulated Roman’s entire High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey. The results suggest Roman could see around 27,000 type Ia supernovae—about 10 times more than all previous surveys combined.
Beyond dramatically increasing our total sample of these supernovae, Roman will push the boundaries of how far back in time we can see them. While most of those detected so far occurred within approximately the last 8 billion years, Roman is expected to see vast numbers of them earlier in the universe’s history, including more than a thousand that exploded more than 10 billion years ago and potentially dozens from as far back as 11.5 billion years. That means Roman will almost certainly set a new record for the farthest type Ia supernova while profoundly expanding our view of the early universe and filling in a critical gap in our understanding of how the cosmos has evolved over time.
“Filling these data gaps could also fill in gaps in our understanding of dark energy,” Rose said. “Evidence is mounting that dark energy has changed over time, and Roman will help us understand that change by exploring cosmic history in ways other telescopes can’t.”
But type Ia supernovae will be hidden among a much bigger sample of exploding stars Roman will see once it begins science operations in 2027. The team estimates Roman will also spot about 60,000 core-collapse supernovae, which occur when a massive star runs out of fuel and collapses under its own weight.
That’s different from type Ia supernovae, which originate from binary star systems that contain at least one white dwarf — the small, hot core remnant of a Sun-like star — siphoning material from a companion star. Core-collapse supernovae aren’t as useful for dark energy studies as type Ias are, but their signals look similar from halfway across the cosmos.
“By seeing the way an object’s light changes over time and splitting it into spectra — individual colors with patterns that reveal information about the object that emitted the light—we can distinguish between all the different types of flashes Roman will see,” said Rebekah Hounsell, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County working at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland and a co-author of the study.
“With the dataset we’ve created, scientists can train machine-learning algorithms to distinguish between different types of objects and sift through Roman’s downpour of data to find them,” Hounsell added. “While searching for type Ia supernovae, Roman is going to collect a lot of cosmic ‘bycatch’—other phenomena that aren’t useful to some scientists, but will be invaluable to others.”
Hidden Gems
Thanks to Roman’s large, deep view of space, scientists say the survey should also unearth extremely rare and elusive phenomena, including even scarcer stellar explosions and disintegrating stars.
Upon close approach to a black hole, intense gravity can shred a star in a so-called tidal disruption event. The stellar crumbs heat up as they swirl around the black hole, creating a glow astronomers can see from across vast stretches of space-time. Scientists think Roman’s survey will unveil 40 tidal disruption events, offering a chance to learn more about black hole physics.
The team also estimates Roman will find about 90 superluminous supernovae, which can be 100 times brighter than a typical supernova. They pack a punch, but scientists aren’t completely sure why. Finding more of them will help astronomers weigh different theories.
Even rarer and more powerful, Roman could also detect several kilonovae. These blasts occur when two neutron stars — extremely dense cores leftover from stars that exploded as supernovae — collide. To date, there has been only one definitive kilonova detection. The team estimates Roman could spot five more.
NASA’s Roman Space Telescope will survey the same areas of the sky every few days following its launch in May 2027. Researchers will mine these data to identify kilonovae – explosions that happen when two neutron stars or a neutron star and a black hole collide and merge. When these collisions happen, a fraction of the resulting debris is ejected as jets, which move near the speed of light. The remaining debris produces hot, glowing, neutron-rich clouds that forge heavy elements, like gold and platinum. Roman’s extensive data will help astronomers better identify how often these events occur, how much energy they give off, and how near or far they are.Credit: NASA, ESA, J. Olmsted (STScI) That would help astronomers learn much more about these mysterious events, potentially including their fate. As of now, scientists are unsure whether kilonovae result in a single neutron star, a black hole, or something else entirely.
Roman may even spot the detonations of some of the first stars that formed in the universe. These nuclear furnaces were giants, up to hundreds of times more massive than our Sun, and unsullied by heavy elements that hadn’t yet formed.
They were so massive that scientists think they exploded differently than modern massive stars do. Instead of reaching the point where a heavy star today would collapse, intense gamma rays inside the first stars may have turned into matter-antimatter pairs (electrons and positrons). That would drain the pressure holding the stars up until they collapsed, self-destructing in explosions so powerful they’re thought to leave nothing behind.
So far, astronomers have found about half a dozen candidates of these “pair-instability” supernovae, but none have been confirmed.
“I think Roman will make the first confirmed detection of a pair-instability supernova,” Rose said — in fact the study suggests Roman will find more than 10. “They’re incredibly far away and very rare, so you need a telescope that can survey a lot of the sky at a deep exposure level in near-infrared light, and that’s Roman.”
A future rendition of the simulation could include even more types of cosmic flashes, such as variable stars and active galaxies. Other telescopes may follow up on the rare phenomena and objects Roman discovers to view them in different wavelengths of light to study them in more detail.
“Roman’s going to find a whole bunch of weird and wonderful things out in space, including some we haven’t even thought of yet,” Hounsell said. “We’re definitely expecting the unexpected.”
For more information about the Roman Space Telescope visit www.nasa.gov/roman.
The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is managed at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, with participation by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California; Caltech/IPAC in Pasadena, California; the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore; and a science team comprising scientists from various research institutions. The primary industrial partners are BAE Systems Inc. in Boulder, Colorado; L3Harris Technologies in Rochester, New York; and Teledyne Scientific & Imaging in Thousand Oaks, California.
By Ashley Balzer
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
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Last Updated Jul 15, 2025 EditorAshley BalzerContactAshley Balzerashley.m.balzer@nasa.gov Related Terms
Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Astrophysics Black Holes Dark Energy Galaxies, Stars, & Black Holes Galaxies, Stars, & Black Holes Research Goddard Space Flight Center Science & Research Stars Supernovae The Universe Explore More
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By European Space Agency
The Meteosat Third Generation Sounder (MTG-S1) satellite, which is hosting the instrument for the Copernicus Sentinel-4 mission, has been placed inside the nose cone of the Falcon 9 launch rocket and is ready for the scheduled liftoff at 23:03 CEST on Tuesday, 1 July.
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