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NASA Analysis Shows Unexpected Amount of Sea Level Rise in 2024


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Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)

Global view of Florida
Communities in coastal areas such as Florida, shown in this 1992 NASA image, are vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, including high-tide flooding. A new agency-led analysis found a higher-than-expected rate of sea level rise in 2024, which was also the hottest year on record.
NASA

Last year’s increase was due to an unusual amount of ocean warming, combined with meltwater from land-based ice such as glaciers.

Global sea level rose faster than expected in 2024, mostly because of ocean water expanding as it warms, or thermal expansion. According to a NASA-led analysis, last year’s rate of rise was 0.23 inches (0.59 centimeters) per year, compared to the expected rate of 0.17 inches (0.43 centimeters) per year.

“The rise we saw in 2024 was higher than we expected,” said Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “Every year is a little bit different, but what’s clear is that the ocean continues to rise, and the rate of rise is getting faster and faster.”

This graph shows global mean sea level
This graph shows global mean sea level (in blue) since 1993 as measured by a series of five satellites. The solid red line indicates the trajectory of this increase, which has more than doubled over the past three decades. The dotted red line projects future sea level rise.
NASA/JPL-Caltech

In recent years, about two-thirds of sea level rise was from the addition of water from land into the ocean by melting ice sheets and glaciers. About a third came from thermal expansion of seawater. But in 2024, those contributions flipped, with two-thirds of sea level rise coming from thermal expansion.

“With 2024 as the warmest year on record, Earth’s expanding oceans are following suit, reaching their highest levels in three decades,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, head of physical oceanography programs and the Integrated Earth System Observatory at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

Since the satellite record of ocean height began in 1993, the rate of annual sea level rise has more than doubled. In total, global sea level has gone up by 4 inches (10 centimeters) since 1993.

This long-term record is made possible by an uninterrupted series of ocean-observing satellites starting with TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992. The current ocean-observing satellite in that series, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, launched in 2020 and is one of an identical pair of spacecraft that will carry this sea level dataset into its fourth decade. Its twin, the upcoming Sentinel-6B satellite, will continue to measure sea surface height down to a few centimeters for about 90% of the world’s oceans.

This animation shows the rise in global mean sea level from 1993 to 2024 based on da-ta from five international satellites. The expansion of water as it warms was responsible for the majority of the higher-than-expected rate of rise in 2024.
NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio

Mixing It Up

There are several ways in which heat makes its way into the ocean, resulting in the thermal expansion of water. Normally, seawater arranges itself into layers determined by water temperature and density. Warmer water floats on top of and is lighter than cooler water, which is denser. In most places, heat from the surface moves very slowly through these layers down into the deep ocean.

But extremely windy areas of the ocean can agitate the layers enough to result in vertical mixing. Very large currents, like those found in the Southern Ocean, can tilt ocean layers, allowing surface waters to more easily slip down deep.

The massive movement of water during El Niño — in which a large pool of warm water normally located in the western Pacific Ocean sloshes over to the central and eastern Pacific — can also result in vertical movement of heat within the ocean.

Learn more about sea level:

https://sealevel.nasa.gov

News Media Contacts

Jane J. Lee / Andrew Wang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-0307 / 626-379-6874
jane.j.lee@jpl.nasa.gov / andrew.wang@jpl.nasa.gov

2025-036

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      Looking at JIRAM data alone, the team also determined that the most energetic eruption in Io’s history (first identified by the infrared imager during Juno’s Dec. 27, 2024, Io flyby) was still spewing lava and ash as recently as March 2. Juno mission scientists believe it remains active today and expect more observations on May 6, when the solar-powered spacecraft flies by the fiery moon at a distance of about 55,300 miles (89,000 kilometers).
      This composite image, derived from data collected in 2017 by the JIRAM instrument aboard NASA’s Juno, shows the central cyclone at Jupiter’s north pole and the eight cy-clones that encircle it. Data from the mission indicates these storms are enduring fea-tures.NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/ASI/INAF/JIRAM Colder Climes
      On its 53rd orbit (Feb 18, 2023), Juno began radio occultation experiments to explore the gas giant’s atmospheric temperature structure. With this technique, a radio signal is transmitted from Earth to Juno and back, passing through Jupiter’s atmosphere on both legs of the journey. As the planet’s atmospheric layers bend the radio waves, scientists can precisely measure the effects of this refraction to derive detailed information about the temperature and density of the atmosphere.
      So far, Juno has completed 26 radio occultation soundings. Among the most compelling discoveries: the first-ever temperature measurement of Jupiter’s north polar stratospheric cap reveals the region is about 11 degrees Celsius cooler than its surroundings and is encircled by winds exceeding 100 mph (161 kph).
      Polar Cyclones
      The team’s recent findings also focus on the cyclones that haunt Jupiter’s north. Years of data from the JunoCam visible light imager and JIRAM have allowed Juno scientists to observe the long-term movement of Jupiter’s massive northern polar cyclone and the eight cyclones that encircle it. Unlike hurricanes on Earth, which typically occur in isolation and at lower latitudes, Jupiter’s are confined to the polar region.
      By tracking the cyclones’ movements across multiple orbits, the scientists observed that each storm gradually drifts toward the pole due to a process called “beta drift” (the interaction between the Coriolis force and the cyclone’s circular wind pattern). This is similar to how hurricanes on our planet migrate, but Earthly cyclones break up before reaching the pole due to the lack of warm, moist air needed to fuel them, as well as the weakening of the Coriolis force near the poles. What’s more, Jupiter’s cyclones cluster together while approaching the pole, and their motion slows as they begin interacting with neighboring cyclones.
      “These competing forces result in the cyclones ‘bouncing’ off one another in a manner reminiscent of springs in a mechanical system,” said Yohai Kaspi, a Juno co-investigator from the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel. “This interaction not only stabilizes the entire configuration, but also causes the cyclones to oscillate around their central positions, as they slowly drift westward, clockwise, around the pole.”
      The new atmospheric model helps explain the motion of cyclones not only on Jupiter, but potentially on other planets, including Earth.
      “One of the great things about Juno is its orbit is ever-changing, which means we get a new vantage point each time as we perform a science flyby,” said Bolton. “In the extended mission, that means we’re continuing to go where no spacecraft has gone before, including spending more time in the strongest planetary radiation belts in the solar system. It’s a little scary, but we’ve built Juno like a tank and are learning more about this intense environment each time we go through it.”
      More About Juno
      NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of Caltech in Pasadena, California, manages the Juno mission for the principal investigator, Scott Bolton, of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. Juno is part of NASA’s New Frontiers Program, which is managed at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The Italian Space Agency funded the Jovian InfraRed Auroral Mapper. Lockheed Martin Space in Denver built and operates the spacecraft. Various other institutions around the U.S. provided several of the other scientific instruments on Juno.
      More information about Juno is at: https://www.nasa.gov/juno
      News Media Contacts
      DC Agle
      Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
      818-393-9011
      agle@jpl.nasa.gov
      Karen Fox / Molly Wasser
      NASA Headquarters, Washington
      202-358-1600
      karen.c.fox@nasa.gov / molly.l.wasser@nasa.gov
      Deb Schmid
      Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio
      210-522-2254
      dschmid@swri.org
      2025-062
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      Last Updated Apr 29, 2025 Related Terms
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