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By European Space Agency
Asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines earlier this year when its probability of impacting Earth in 2032 rose as high as 3%. While an Earth impact has now been ruled out, the asteroid’s story continues.
The final glimpse of the asteroid as it faded out of view of humankind’s most powerful telescopes left it with a 4% chance of colliding with the Moon on 22 December 2032.
The likelihood of a lunar impact will now remain stable until the asteroid returns to view in mid-2028. In this FAQ, find out why we are left with this lingering uncertainty and how ESA's planned NEOMIR space telescope will help us avoid similar situations in the future.
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By NASA
Explore This Section Earth Earth Observer Editor’s Corner Feature Articles Meeting Summaries News Science in the News Calendars In Memoriam More Archives Conference Schedules Style Guide 19 min read
Summary of the 2024 SAGE III/ISS Meeting
Introduction
The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III/International Space Station [SAGEIII/ISS] Science Team Meeting (STM) took place on October 22–23, 2024, in a hybrid format. Approximately 50 scientists attended in person at NASA’s Langley Research Center (LaRC) – see Photo. Participants included researchers from U.S. universities, NASA LaRC, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) laboratories. Speakers from Canada and Germany also attended.
The history of the SAGE missions, the development and accomplishments of the SAGE III/ISS mission, and a summary of the 2022 STM appear in a previous article – see “Summary of the SAGE III/ISS Science Team Meeting,” in The Earth Observer, May–June 2023, 35:3, 11–18.
This article will summarize the content and key outcomes from the 2024 STM. The full agenda and presentations can be viewed at the SAGE III/ISS website. To access the presentations, use the link provided, then click on the Science Team tab and scroll about halfway down the page to find the 2024 meeting where they are listed.
Photo. Group photo of the in-person attendees of the SAGE III/ISS science team meeting, which took place at NASA’s Langley Research Center October 22–23, 2024. Photo Credit: NASA DAY ONE
Jun Wang [University of Iowa—SAGE III/ISS Science Team Leader] and David Flittner [LaRC—SAGE III/ISS Project Scientist] kicked off the STM. The pair welcomed all participants and invited Richard Eckman [NASA Headquarters (HQ)—SAGE III/ISS Program Scientist, now emeritus (as of January 1, 2025)] to deliver opening remarks. Allison McMahon [LaRC/Science Systems and Applications, Inc. (SSAI)—SAGE III/ISS Communications Lead] then spoke and provided logistical details for the meeting.
The morning sessions focused on project updates and the synergy between SAGE III/ISS and future missions currently in the planning phase, with potential launches in the early 2030s. The afternoon sessions were dedicated to aerosol research and the calibration/validation of SAGE III/ISS data products.
Project Operation and Data Product Briefing
David Flittner presented an update of the mission status, with over seven years and counting of data collection/analysis/release. SAGE III/ISS went through the 2023 Earth Science Senior Review (see page 15 of linked document for specific summary of the SAGE III/ISS results), and NASA HQ approved the proposal for continued operations for 2024–2026, with partial, overguide (i.e., above baseline request) funding approved to support community validation efforts, e.g., developing online quick look tools – see Figure 1 – and timely algorithm and product improvements. However, some reduction in mission staff and reorganization of work assignments have had to occur to stay within the allotted budget.
Overall, Flittner described 2024 as “a year of growth” for many on the SAGE III/ISS Team. He referenced important mission activities planned during the current three-year tenure of the new Science Team cohort. This work includes supporting the 2026 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) International Ozone assessment with a release of improved solar/lunar product in early 2025, examination of product sensitivities to variable aerosol loadings, introduction of a research product with retrieved temperature and pressure profiles, and continuing a much sought-after summer internship program.
Figure 1. An example of an enhanced tool for the community to visualize SAGE III/ISS data validation. Figure Credit: Mary Cate McKee [LaRC] Robbie Manion [LaRC] presented version 6.0 (V6) of the SAGE III/ISS data products, which were released in April 2025. Owing to a change in source ozone (O3) cross sections, this version will resolve the longstanding low bias in retrieved aerosol extinction around 600 nm. As a result, some changes in the downstream data products for inferred particle size distribution and aerosol/cloud categorization are expected. In addition, V6 will allow for recovery of hundreds of profiles previously impeded by the recent proliferation of sunspots.
Jamie Nehrir [LaRC] stated that SAGE III celebrated its seventh year onboard the ISS on February 19, 2024. [UPDATE: As of this publication, SAGE III/ISS has now passed eight years in orbit.] The payload continues to operate nominally surpassing 70,000 occultation events successfully acquired. Nehrir reported that SAGE III was not affected by the October 9, 2023, external leak from the Russian Nauka (or Multipurpose Laboratory) Module. However, the Disturbance Monitoring Package (DMP) lasers for the y- and z-axes on the instrument have been degrading. The operations team has been in a healthy dialog with the science and processing teams and external partners to determine the potential impact of these degradations on payload performance and on any ISS activities that could affect the science.
Invited Presentations on Synergy with New Limb Missions in Formulation
Lyatt Jaeglé [University of Washington] presented the mission concept for the Stratosphere Troposphere Response using Infrared Vertically-resolved light Explorer (STRIVE), which was recently selected for a competitive Phase A Concept Study within NASA’s 2023 Earth System Explorers Program (an element of the 2017–2027 Earth Science Decadal Survey). STRIVE fills a critical need for high vertical [1 km (0.6 mi)] resolution profiles of temperature, O3, trace gases, aerosols, and clouds in the upper troposphere–stratosphere (UTS). The system will provide near-global coverage and unparalleled horizontal sampling, producing 400,000 profiles each day. STRIVE will carry two synergistic instruments: a limb-scanning, infrared-imaging Dyson spectrometer to retrieve profiles of temperature, water vapor, trace gas concentrations, aerosol extinction, and cloud properties during day and night; and a dual-spectral, multi-directional, limb-profiling radiometer that retrieves detailed aerosol properties during day.
Björn-Martin Sinnhuber [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany] gave an overview of the Changing-Atmosphere Infrared Tomography Explorer (CAIRT), a candidate mission for the upcoming European Space Agency (ESA) Earth Explorer 11 satellite. If selected, CAIRT would provide passive infrared limb imaging of atmospheric temperature and trace constituents from the upper troposphere at about 5 km (3 mi) altitude up to the lower thermosphere at 115 km (71 mi) altitude. The presentation highlighted how these observations can provide information on how atmospheric gravity waves drive middle atmosphere circulation, age-of-air in the middle atmosphere, the descent of nitrogen oxides (Nox) from the thermosphere into the stratosphere, as well as the detection of sulfur species and sulfate (SO42-) aerosols in the stratosphere.
Aerosols
Mahesh Mundakkara [LaRC] presented the research used to generate the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) product, a critical resource for analyzing and modeling the climatic effects of stratospheric aerosols. His presentation focused on assessing the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) limb profiler (LP) by comparing its data with other datasets, particularly SAGE III/ISS. (NOTE: While OMPS currently flies on the NASA–NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP), NOAA-20, and NOAA-21 platforms; LP is only part of OMPS on NOAA–21.) The evaluation aims to identify discrepancies and assess the suitability of OMPS-LP data for integration into the GloSSAC framework.
Jianglong Zhang [University of North Dakota] discussed the research plans of a newly funded SAGE project to investigate effective methods for improving stratospheric aerosol analyses and forecasts from aerosol models that can be used for future air quality and visibility forecasts and climate applications. Zhang also presented preliminary comparisons of collocated SAGE aerosol extinction and Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar aerosol extinction values in the stratosphere. [NOTE: CATS operated on ISS from 2015–2017.]
Sara Lu [The State University of New York, Albany] discussed efforts to examine smoke aerosol radiative effects in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using SAGE III/ISS observations. Lu explained that this project aims to produce multiyear analysis of aerosol radiative effects from all known pyrocumulonimbus cloud (pyroCb) events worldwide over a range of pyroCb intensities and various injection altitudes, geographic locations, and backgrounds. He presented findings from a pyroCb inventory compiled by the Naval Research Lab (NRL).
Xi Chen and Jun Wang [both University of Iowa] presented their new project on retrieving aerosol properties using SAGE III/ISS lunar measurements. They noted the challenges in normalizing lunar measurements caused by the Moon’s non-uniform surface. To address this, the team is developing a local normalization method to derive atmospheric transmissions from signals detected within each lunar event, enabling accurate aerosol retrieval. They reported that preliminary results are promising as evidenced by comparison with transmission product from collocated solar events – see Figure 2. This new processing will enrich the spatial and temporal coverage of SAGE III/ISS aerosol product by involving lunar events.
Figure 2. Preliminary results of the transmission derived from SAGE III/ISS lunar measurements (y-axis) and its comparison with collocated SAGE III/ISS solar measurements (x-axis). The comparisons are presented in two ways, one for the same wavelength color-coded by altitude [left] and another at the same altitude color-coded for the different wavelengths [right]. The results are for June 2017 through Novembe 2022, and the collocation criteria requires latitude separation smaller than 1˚ and observation times within 10 days. Note that if the transmission at any wavelength or altitude is smaller than 0.005, it is removed from the comparison for quality assurance purpose. Figure Credit: Xi Chen, University of Iowa Adam Pastorek and Peter Bernath [both Old Dominion University] discussed the properties of stratospheric SO42- aerosols from the infrared transmission spectra of Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) – flying on the Canadian SCISAT satellite since 2003 – and optical extinction from SAGE III/ISS. Based on ACE infrared measurements, the researchers derived an empirical formula to determine the composition (weight % H2SO4) of volcanic plumes. They combined coincident ACE and SAGE III/ISS measurements, using bimodal, log-normal size distributions to reproduce the observations – see Figure 3. They used ACE observations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to study the creation and destruction of stratospheric SO42- aerosols.
Figure 3. Combined transmittance fitting results from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment– Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), and SAGE III/ISS measurements demonstrate an improved characterization of sulfate particle size distribution using bi-lognormal (mode) distributions compared to a single lognormal distribution. The panels on the left show the transmittance fitting [top] and residuals [bottom] for the mono-mode distribution model, while the center panels show the transmittance fitting [top] and residuals [bottom] for the bi-mode distribution. The right panel illustrates the contributions of fine and coarse mode components to the total transmittance. The measurements for this figure were taken approximately four months after the January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption at a tangent height of 23.6 km (14.5 mi) in ACE occultation (ss100628), with coincident SAGE measurements from that same period (2022041609). Figure Credit: Adam Pastorek, adapted from a Figure in a paper published in Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer in January 2024. Sean Davis [NOAA, Chemistry Science Lab] presented on his research aimed at constraining decadal variability and assessing trends in stratospheric composition and tropospheric circulation using SAGE III/ISS and complementary satellite data sets. The team continues to include the SAGE water vapor and O3 products in the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) dataset. Davis also highlighted preliminary work evaluating V6 data in comparison to the former V5.3. He discussed line-of-sight, transmission-based filtering for O3 profiles and O3 diurnal variability corrections.
Lars Kalnaajs [University of Colorado, Boulder] presented results from two studies of particle size distributions from SAGE aerosol extinction data. Kalnaajs summarized results from two papers in review. His team paired the Optical Particle Counter collected from balloon platforms with SAGE II data to derive the parameters for bi-mode aerosol size distribution. They also presented the work of using SAGE III extinction ratios, 448/756 versus 1544/756, to derive monomodal lognormal size distribution, which allows them to compute distribution moments and compare these to in situ measurements taken over Sweden in the winters of 2002 and 2004.
Anne Thompson [GSFC, emeritus] presented on the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network and how that SHADOZ data are a satellite validation standard and can also be used to assess ozone trends in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Thompson emphasized that SHADOZ O3 profiles are the only standard process to obtain measurements from surface to mid-stratosphere at 100–150 m (328–492 ft) resolution. Such measurements are essential to validate O3 measurements from SAGE-derived products. She also presented an update on the free tropospheric and lowermost stratospheric (LMS) O3 trends from eight equatorial SHADOZ sites. Newer calculations confirm that an apparent LMS seasonal decline (July–September) is associated with a roughly 100 m (328 ft) upward trend in tropopause height.
DAY TWO
The second day started with Jack Kaye [NASA Earth Science Division—Associate Director for Research for the Earth Science Division, emeritus as of April 30, 2025] providing a historic perspective on SAGE and comments on its context within NASA’s overall Earth science program. A technical session was held with three invited presentations, followed by three additional sessions where science team members presented their research on trace gas studies, including data product calibration and validation. The meeting concluded with updates from the SAGE project team on the SAGE III/ISS website and ongoing operations aboard the ISS. In his presentation, Kaye shared about his past involvement with the SAGE program and his perspective on its future in the context of flight missions for Earth observations.
Invited Presentations on Advanced Modeling and New Satellite Mission For UTS
Steven Pawson [GSFC] presented on the comprehensive modeling and analysis capabilities of
Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) dynamics and composition in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model Pawson discussed the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) recent support for the Asian summer monsoon Chemical and CLimate Impact Project (ACCLIP) mission and the trend analysis of stratospheric O3. He also discussed future plans for GMAO, including improving the representation of water vapor in UTS through data assimilation and increasing horizontal and vertical resolution in the GEOS model.
Kostas Tsigaridis [Columbia University] presented recent research on the composition and climate impacts of increasing launches to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Assuming that there are 10,000 launches per year and all launches use liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a propellant, the team compiled launch-related emission inventories and highlighted key uncertainties that could significantly affect climate predictions – particularly the impact black carbon has on the radiative balance and heterogeneous chemistry of the UTS. In addition, water vapor was found to contribute to the heating of the stratosphere and to a nontrivial amount of O3 depletion – 13 Dobson units (DU) on the global mean.
Adam Bourassa [University of Saskatchewan, Canada] introduced the satellite mission for High-altitude Aerosol, Water vapor, and Clouds (HAWC), planned as the Canadian contribution to the NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) for launch in 2031 – a key component in NASA’s next generation Earth System Observatory. Bourassa highlighted the three Canadian instruments, which include limb profilers for water vapor and aerosol in the UTS and a far infrared imaging radiometer for ice cloud microphysics and radiative budget closure. He discussed instrument requirements and development progress as well as results from recent sub-orbital testing of prototypes on the NASA Earth Resources (ER)-2 and stratospheric balloons.
Trace Gases
Brian Soden [University of Miami] presented a new project that will use SAGE data to constrain climate sensitivity in climate models. Climate models differ substantially in their calculation of the radiative forcing from carbon dioxide (CO2), and these intermodel differences have remained largely unchanged for several decades. Soden highlighted the role of stratospheric temperature in modulating the radiative forcing from CO2. He explained that models that simulate a cooler stratosphere simulate a larger radiative forcing for the same change in CO2 compared to models that posit a warmer stratosphere. He added that determining the cause of the model biases in stratospheric temperature – particularly the role of water vapor in driving this intermodel spread – is an area of active research.
Ray Wang [Georgia Institute of Technology] compared the uncertainty analysis of SAGE III retrieved O3 and water vapor data in V5.3 to the same parameters in V6.0. He then compared the SAGE III data to the correlative measurements from other platforms. For O3, the differences between SAGE and measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA’s Aura platform are less than 5% in the stratosphere. SAGE V6.0 ozone values are systematically about 1–2% higher than those from V5.3 O3 – due to changes in how the O3 cross-section is represented in each version. For water vapor, SAGE data agree with MLS and Frost Point Hygrometer (FPH) data within 5%. Wang showed some differences between SAGE water vapor data retrievals using V5.3 and the same data obtained using version 6.0. He also said that a two-dimensional (i.e., spatial and temporal) regression model can be used to minimize sampling bias in climatology derived from non-uniform satellite measurements – ensuring more accurate representation of long-term trends.
Emma Knowland [GSFC/Morgan State University, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research II (GESTAR II), now NASA HQ—SAGE III/ISS Program Scientist] discussed the progress of assimilating SAGE III water vapor data product into NASA’s GEOS re-analysis. Her team’s work demonstrated that while the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1% of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data can provide a valuable constraint on GEOS re-analysis, especially in the absence of MLS data – see Figure 4.
Figure 4. Hovmöller diagrams of the vertical distribution of 15°S–15°N average water vapor anomalies in upper troposphere–stratosphere with water vapor relaxed to a climatology [top left] and from data assimilation of SAGE III/ISS water vapor into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model [bottom left]. Scatter plots show water vapor mixing ratios (y-axis) with [top right] and without [bottom right] data assimilation compared independent observations from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) data (x-axis). The ACE–FTS data were not used in data assimilation. This shows that data assimilation of SAGE data improves the agreement with ACE-FTS – especially in the lower stratosphere (400 to 500 K). Figure Credit: Emma Knowland [NASA] Melody Avery [University of Colorado, Boulder] discussed using SAGE data and data from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Projection (CALIOP) instrument (on the former Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission) to study thin clouds and aerosol distributions in the tropical tropopause region (TTL). Avery explained that these distributions from V5.3 of SAGE-III/ISS and V5.41 of CALIOP are shown to agree well, and CALIOP observations of cloud frequency are shown to be a sensitive metric for defining the width of the Hadley Cell near the tropical tropopause. Combining SAGE and CALIOP data produced a longer timescale to constrain and evaluate climate models that currently do not agree on how the tropical width at this altitude varies. They found that results derived using SAGE V6.0 versus V5.3 differ on the order of 2% in the TTL region.
Pamela Wales [GESTAR II] introduced a new project that leverages SAGE III/ISS measurements to explore diurnal characteristics of O3 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in GEOS model products. Her team is exploring potentially using a GEOS reanalysis of stratospheric trace gases collected by MLS as a transfer standard to evaluate the consistency between the SAGE III/ISS solar and the less frequently measured lunar retrieval. They are also assessing uncertainties in stratospheric NO2 in the GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) model using SAGE III/ISS and complementary satellite instruments. This work will inform how effectively GEOS-CF can be used in air quality studies to remove the stratospheric signal from column retrievals of NO2.
Luis Millán [JPL] presented work on the change of stratospheric water vapor mass after the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai (Hunga) volcano eruption in 2022. Millán found an increase (~10%) of total stratospheric water vapor – a potent greenhouse gas. Given their advanced age, MLS, ACE-FTS, and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on NASA’s Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission (Heliosphere Division), are nearing the end of their missions, leaving SAGE III/ISS as the primary instrument for monitoring the plume’s evolution. Millán discussed how the SAGE III/ISS measurements might be sufficient to observe the dispersion of the excess Hunga water vapor from stratosphere in coming years. He also discussed a 39-year plus record of stratospheric water vapor mass using the overlapping periods between SAGE II, MLS, and SAGE III/ISS.
Ryan Stauffer [GSFC] presented the operation and outcomes of the Ticosonde balloon-borne O3 and water vapor sonde project in San Jose, Costa Rica. Ongoing since July 2005, Ticosonde has collected over 700 O3 profiles and 270 water vapor profiles for climate and pollution studies and satellite validation. Because Ticosonde is the only long-term water vapor sonde station in the tropics, the stratospheric water vapor data is vital for validation of SAGE-III/ISS and MLS profiles. Ticosonde has been used to verify the success of updated water vapor retrieval algorithms for both instruments – which now agree within a few percent up to 25 km (15 mi) altitude.
Natalya Kramarova [GSFC] showed the comparison of O3 profile retrieved from SAGE III with those derived from the OMPS-LP sensor – which is part of OMPS on NOAA-21 – from February 2023–June 2024. Diurnal corrections using the Goddard Diurnal Ozone Climatology (which is described in a 2020 article in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques) is applied to account for differences in measurement times between SAGE III’s sunrise or sunset observations and NOAA-21 LP’s midday measurements. Once the time correction is made, results show good agreement between the two instruments in depicting vertical ozone distribution across different geographical regions (e.g., tropics and mid-latitudes) and under various conditions (e.g., near the edge of the Antarctic O3 hole in October 2023). The mean biases between NOAA-21 LP and SAGE III are typically within ±5% between ~18–45 km (11–28 mi).
Project Team and Operations Highlights
Michael Heitz [LaRC] showed that V5.3 and previous versions of the SAGE III/ISS data product had a noticeable – and unphysical – dip in the retrieved aerosol extinction between 520–676 nm. This dip has been referred to as the aerosol “seagull.” However, adoption of a new absorption cross-section database into the V6.0 algorithm reduced the aerosol seagull effect significantly. Kevin Leavor [LaRC] presented new developments for the SAGE III/ISS quick look website. Mary Cate McKee [LaRC] introduced a new feature of the quick look website that showcases comparisons of O3 and water vapor sonde data at over 40 stations. Sonde data is sourced from the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), GSFC’s SHADOZ, and the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC). Heitz explained that the comparison plots are updated continuously as new coincidences occur, providing the community with valuable insight to the quality of SAGE III/ISS data relative to this external network of ground stations. Future additions to the website include aerosol and lidar comparisons, additional plot statistics, and comparisons with novel homogenized datasets.
Returning to a topic discussed in Jamie Nehrir’s presentation, Charles Hill [LaRC] showed that the SAGE III Disturbance Monitoring Package (DMP) correction to the data product – which was implemented beginning with V5.3 – has significantly reduced the product uncertainties caused by ISS vibrations. Approximately 7% of SAGE III occultation events are highly disturbed by mechanical vibrations, and the DMP correction has improved pointing registrations in these events significantly. The DMP’s x-axis gyroscope failed on August 8, 2023 – but this loss did not significantly affect the DMP correction to scan plane elevation. Future possible losses of either the y- or z-axes will end active correction of ISS disturbances.
Conclusion
Jun Wang, David Flittner, and Richard Eckman led the closing discussion that highlighted the growing interest in atmospheric composition change – particularly due to emissions from large wildfires and volcanic eruptions in recent years. This increasing interest contrasts with the declining availability of observational data from the upper troposphere, following the retirement of CALIPSO in late 2023 and the planned decommissioning of Aura’s aging limb instruments in 2026. This gap underscores the critical importance of SAGE III/ISS data – not only for current UTS research but also for the next 5–7 years, during which no new limb measurements are planned.
SAGE III/ISS remains essential for profiling key atmospheric constituents, including water vapor, aerosols, O₃, and NO₂. The long-term, consistent data record provided by the SAGE series of instruments since the late 1970s – including SAGE III/ISS since 2017 – has been invaluable for studying past and future changes in atmospheric composition within the UTS. To further support research and applications of SAGE data products, participants discussed the possibility of proposing a special collection of articles in AGU journals.
Overall, the 2024 SAGE III/ISS meeting was a success. Participants received valuable updates on the status of SAGE III/ISS operations, data product calibration and validation, and new developments. The meeting also showcased the collective expertise and excellence in driving advancements in UTS research, from climate change studies to data assimilation for chemistry transport models and contributions to multi-sensor data fusion.
Jun Wang
University of Iowa
jun-wang-1@uiowa.edu
David Flittner
Langley Research Center
david.e.flittner@nasa.gov
Richard Eckman
NASA Langley Research Center
richard.s.eckman@nasa.gov
Emma Knowland
NASA Headquarters
k.e.knowland@nasa.gov
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By Space Force
Department of the Air Force Chief of Safety Maj. Gen. Sean Choquette released the recipients for the fiscal year 2024 Secretary of the Air Force and Chief of Staff Safety Awards, as well as the Air and Space Forces Chief of Safety Awards.
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By NASA
8 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
Return to 2024 SARP Closeout Faculty Advisors:
Dr. Tom Bell, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Dr. Kelsey Bisson, NASA Headquarters Science Mission Directorate
Graduate Mentor:
Kelby Kramer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Kelby Kramer, Graduate Mentor
Kelby Kramer, graduate mentor for the 2024 SARP Ocean Remote Sensing group, provides an introduction for each of the group members and shares behind-the scenes moments from the internship.
Lucas DiSilvestro
Shallow Water Benthic Cover Type Classification using Hyperspectral Imagery in Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii
Lucas DiSilvestro
Quantifying the changing structure and extent of benthic coral communities is essential for informing restoration efforts and identifying stressed regions of coral. Accurate classification of shallow-water benthic coral communities requires high spectral and spatial resolution, currently not available on spaceborne sensors, to observe the seafloor through an optically complex seawater column. Here we create a shallow water benthic cover type map of Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii using the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) without requiring in-situ data as inputs. We first run the AVIRIS data through a semi-analytical inversion model to derive color dissolved organic matter, chlorophyll concentration, bottom albedo, suspended sediment, and depth parameters for each pixel, which are then matched to a Hydrolight simulated water column. Pure reflectance for coral, algae, and sand are then projected through each water column to create spectral endmembers for each pixel. Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) provides fractional cover of each benthic class on a per-pixel basis. We demonstrate the efficacy of using simulated water columns to create surface reflectance spectral endmembers as Hydrolight-derived in-situ endmember spectra strongly match AVIRIS surface reflectance for corresponding locations (average R = 0.96). This study highlights the capabilities of using medium-fine resolution hyperspectral imagery to identify fractional cover type of localized coral communities and lays the groundwork for future spaceborne hyperspectral monitoring of global coral communities.
Atticus Cummings
Quantifying Uncertainty In Kelp Canopy Remote Sensing Using the Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 Dataset
Atticus Cummings
California’s giant kelp forests serve as a major foundation for the region’s rich marine biodiversity and provide recreational and economic value to the State of California. With the rising frequency of marine heatwaves and extreme weather onset by climate change, it has become increasingly important to study these vital ecosystems. Kelp forests are highly dynamic, changing across several timescales; seasonally due to nutrient concentrations, waves, and predator populations, weekly with typical growth and decay, and hourly with the tides and currents. Previous remote sensing of kelp canopies has relied on Landsat imagery taken with a eight-day interval, limiting the ability to quantify more rapid changes. This project aims to address uncertainty in kelp canopy detection using the Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) dataset’s zero to five-day revisit period. A random forest classifier was used to identify pixels that contain kelp, on which Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) was then run to quantify intrapixel kelp density. Processed multispectral satellite images taken within 3 days of one another were paired for comparison. The relationship between fluctuations in kelp canopy density with tides and currents was assessed using in situ data from an acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) at the Santa Barbara Long Term Ecological Research site (LTER) and a NOAA tidal buoy. Preliminary results show that current and tidal trends cannot be accurately correlated with canopy detection due to other sources of error. We found that under cloud-free conditions, canopy detection between paired images varied on average by 42%. Standardized image processing suggests that this uncertainty is not created within the image processing step, but likely arises due to exterior factors such as sensor signal noise, atmospheric conditions, and sea state. Ultimately, these errors could lead to misinterpretation of remotely sensed kelp ecosystems, highlighting the need for further research to identify and account for uncertainties in remote sensing of kelp canopies.
Jasmine Sirvent
Kelp Us!: A Methods Analysis for Predicting Kelp Pigment Concentrations from Hyperspectral Reflectance
Jasmine Sirvent
Ocean color remote sensing enables researchers to assess the quantity and physiology of life in the ocean, which is imperative to understanding ecosystem health and formulating accurate predictions. However, without proper methods to analyze hyperspectral data, correlations between spectral reflectance and physiological traits cannot be accurately derived. In this study, I explored different methods—single variable regression, partial least squares regressions (PLSR), and derivatives—in analyzing in situ Macrocystis pyrifera (giant kelp) off the coast of Santa Barbara, California in order to predict pigment concentrations from AVIRIS hyperspectral reflectance. With derivatives as a spectral diagnostic tool, there is evidence suggesting high versus low pigment concentrations could be diagnosed; however, the fluctuations were within 10 nm of resolution, thus AVIRIS would be unable to reliably detect them. Exploring a different method, I plotted in situ pigment measurements — chlorophyll a, fucoxanthin, and the ratio of fucoxanthin to chlorophyll a—against hyperspectral reflectance that was resampled to AVIRIS bands. PLSR proved to be a more successful model because of its hyperdimensional analysis capabilities in accounting for multiple wavelength bands, reaching R2 values of 0.67. Using this information, I constructed a model that predicts kelp pigments from simulated AVIRIS reflectance using a spatial time series of laboratory spectral measurements and photosynthetic pigment concentrations. These results have implications, not only for kelp, but many other photosynthetic organisms detectable by hyperspectral airborne or satellite sensors. With these findings, airborne optical data could possibly predict a plethora of other biogeochemical traits. Potentially, this research would permit scientists to acquire data analogous to in situ measurements about floating matters that cannot financially and pragmatically be accessed by anything other than a remote sensor.
Isabelle Cobb
Correlations Between SSHa and Chl-a Concentrations in the Northern South China Sea
Isabelle Cobb
Sea surface height anomalies (SSHa)–variations in sea surface height from climatological averages–occur on seasonal timescales due to coastal upwelling and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. These anomalies are heightened when upwelling plumes bring cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface, and are particularly strong along continental shelves in the Northern South China Sea (NSCS). This linkage between SSHa and nutrient availability has interesting implications for changing chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations, a prominent indicator of phytoplankton biomass that is essential to the health of marine ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the long-term (15 years) relationship between SSHa and chl-a, in both satellite remote sensing data and in situ measurements. Level 3 SSHa data from Jason 1/2/3 satellites and chl-a data from MODIS Aqua were acquired and binned to monthly resolution. We found a significant inverse correlation between SSHa and chl-a during upwelling months in both the remote sensing (Spearman’s R=-0.57) and in situ data, with higher resolution in situ data from ORAS4 (an assimilation of buoy observations from 2003-2017) showing stronger correlations (Spearman’s R=-0.75). In addition, the data reveal that the magnitude of SSH increases with time during instances of high correlation, possibly indicating a trend of increased SSH associated with reduced seasonal chl-a concentrations. Thus, this relationship may inform future work predicting nutrient availability and threats to marine ecosystems as climate change continues to affect coastal sea surface heights.
Alyssa Tou
Exploring Coastal Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and their effect on Coastal Fog through analyzing Plant Phenology
Alyssa Tou
Marine heat waves (MHW) have been increasing in frequency, duration and intensity, giving them substantial potential to influence ecosystems. Do these MHWs sufficiently enhance coastal precipitation such that plant growth is impacted? Recently, the Northeast Pacific experienced a long, intense MHW in 2014/2015, and another short, less intense MHW in 2019/2020. Here we investigate how the intensity and duration of MHWs influence the intensity and seasonal cycle of three different land cover types (‘grass’, ‘trees’, and a combination of both ‘combined’’) to analyze plant phenology trends in Big Sur, California. We hypothesize that longer intense MHWs decrease the ocean’s evaporative capacity, decreasing fog, thus lowering plant productivity, as measured by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Sea surface temperature (SST) and NDVI data were collected from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch, and NASA MODIS/Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day L3 Global 250m products respectively. Preliminary results show no correlation (R2=0.02) between SSTa and combined NDVI values and no correlation (R2=0.01) between SST and NDVI. This suggests that years with anomalously high SST do not significantly impact plant phenology. During the intense and long 2014/2015 MHW, peak NDVI values for ‘grass’ and ‘combined’ pixels were 2.0 and 1.7 standard deviations above the climatological average, while the shorter 2019/2020 MHW saw higher peaks of 3.2 and 2.4 standard deviations. However, the ‘grass’, ‘tree’ and ‘combined’ NDVI anomalies were statistically insignificant during both MHWs, showing that although NDVI appeared to increase during the shorter and less intense MHW, these values may be attributed to other factors. The data qualitatively suggest that MHW’s don’t impact the peak NDVI date, but more data at higher temporal resolution are necessary. Further research will involve analyzing fog indices and exploring confounding variables impacting NDVI, such as plant physiology, anthropogenic disturbance, and wildfires. In addition, it’s important to understand to what extent changes in NDVI are attributed to the driving factors of MHWs or the MHWs themselves. Ultimately, mechanistically understanding the impacts MHW intensity and duration have on terrestrial ecosystems will better inform coastal community resilience.
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Last Updated Nov 22, 2024 Related Terms
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10 min read SARP East 2024 Atmospheric Science Group
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10 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
Return to 2024 SARP Closeout Faculty Advisors:
Dr. Guanyu Huang, Stony Brook University
Graduate Mentor:
Ryan Schmedding, McGill University
Ryan Schmedding, Graduate Mentor
Ryan Schmedding, graduate mentor for the 2024 SARP Atmospheric Science group, provides an introduction for each of the group members and shares behind-the scenes moments from the internship.
Danielle Jones
Remote sensing of poor air quality in mountains: A case study in Kathmandu, Nepal
Danielle Jones
Urban activity produces particulate matter in the atmosphere known as aerosol particles. These aerosols can negatively affect human health and cause changes to the climate system. Measures for aerosols include surface level PM2.5 concentration and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Kathmandu, Nepal is an urban area that rests in a valley on the edge of the Himalayas and is home to over three million people. Despite the prevailing easterly winds, local aerosols are mostly concentrated in the valley from the residential burning of coal followed by industry. Exposure to PM2.5 has caused an estimated ≥8.6% of deaths annually in Nepal. We paired NASA satellite AOD and elevation data, model meteorological data, and local AirNow PM2.5 and air quality index (AQI) data to determine causes of variation in pollutant measurement during 2023, with increased emphasis on the post-monsoon season (Oct. 1 – Dec. 31). We see the seasonality of meteorological data related to PM2.5 and AQI. During periods of low temperature, low wind speed, and high pressure, PM2.5 and AQI data slightly diverge. This may indicate that temperature inversions increase surface level concentrations of aerosols but have little effect on the total air column. The individual measurements of surface pressure, surface temperature, and wind speed had no observable correlation to AOD (which was less variable than PM2.5 and AQI over the entire year). Elevation was found to have no observable effect on AOD during the period of study. Future research should focus on the relative contributions of different pollutants to the AQI to test if little atmospheric mixing causes the formation of low-altitude secondary pollutants in addition to PM2.5 leading to the observed divergence in AQI and PM2.5.
Madison Holland
Analyzing the Transport and Impact of June 2023 Canadian Wildfire Smoke on Surface PM2.5 Levels in Allentown, Pennsylvania
Madison Holland
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unparalleled in its severity. Over 17 million hectares burned, the largest area ever burned in a single season. The smoke from these wildfires spread thousands of kilometers, causing a large population to be exposed to air pollution. Wildfires can release a variety of air pollutants, including fine particulate matter (PM2.5). PM2.5 directly affects human health – exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 has been associated with respiratory issues such as the exacerbation of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In June 2023, smoke from the Canadian wildfires drifted southward into the United States. The northeastern United States reported unhealthy levels of air quality due to the transportation of the smoke. In particular, Pennsylvania reported that Canadian wildfires caused portions of the state to have “Hazardous” air quality. Our research focused on how Allentown, PA experienced hazardous levels of air quality from this event. To analyze the concentrations of PM2.5 at the surface level, NASA’s Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) and the EPA’s Air Quality System (AQS) ground-based site data were utilized. By comparing HAQES’s forecast of hazardous air quality events with recorded daily average PM2.5 with the EPA’s AQS, we were able to compare how well the ensemble system was at predicting total PM2.5 during unhealthy air quality days. NOAA’s Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, pyrsig, and the Canadian National Fire Database were used. These datasets revealed the trajectory of aerosols from the wildfires to Allentown, Pennsylvania, identified the densest regions of the smoke plumes, and provided a map of wildfire locations in southeastern Canada. By integrating these datasets, we traced how wildfire smoke transported aerosols from the source at the ground level.
Michele Iraci
Trends and Transport of Tropospheric Ozone From New York City to Connecticut in the Summer of 2023
Michele Iraci
Tropospheric Ozone, or O₃, is a criteria pollutant contributing to most of Connecticut and New York City’s poor air quality days. It has adverse effects on human health, particularly for high-risk individuals. Ozone is produced by nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds from fuel combustion reacting with sunlight. The Ozone Transport Region (OTR) is a collection of states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States that experience cross-state pollution of O₃. Connecticut has multiple days a year where O₃ values exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standards requiring the implementation of additional monitoring and standards because it falls in the OTR. Partially due to upstream transport from New York City, Connecticut experiences increases in O₃ concentrations in the summer months. Connecticut has seen declines in poor air quality days from O₃ every year due to the regulations on ozone and its precursors. We use ground-based Lidar, Air Quality System data, and a back-trajectory model to examine a case of ozone enhancement in Connecticut caused by air pollutants from New York between June and August 2023. In this time period, Connecticut’s ozone enhancement was caused by air pollutants from New York City. As a result, New York City and Connecticut saw similar O₃ spikes and decline trends. High-temperature days increase O₃ in both places, and wind out of the southwest may transport O₃ to Connecticut. Production and transport of O₃ from New York City help contribute to Connecticut’s poor air quality days, resulting in the need for interstate agreements on pollution management.
Stefan Sundin
Correlations Between the Planetary Boundary Layer Height and the Lifting Condensation Level
Stefan Sundin
The Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) characterizes the lowest layer in the atmosphere that is coupled with diurnal heating at the surface. The PBL grows during the day as solar heating causes pockets of air near the surface to rise and mix with cooler air above. Depending on the type of terrain and surface albedo that receives solar heating, the depth of the PBL can vary to a great extent. This makes PBL height (PBLH) a difficult variable to quantify spatially and temporally. While several methods have been used to obtain the PBLH such as wind profilers and lidar techniques, there is still a level of uncertainty associated with PBLH. One method of predicting seasonal PBLH fluctuation and potentially lessening uncertainty that will be discussed in this study is recognizing a correlation in PBLH with the lifting condensation level (LCL). Like the PBL, the LCL is used as a convective parameter when analyzing upper air data, and classifies the height in the atmosphere at which a parcel becomes saturated when lifted by a forcing mechanism, such as a frontal boundary, localized convergence, or orographic lifting. A reason to believe that PBLH and LCL are interconnected is their dependency on both the amount of surface heating and moisture that is present in the environment. These thermodynamic properties are of interest in heavily populated metropolitan areas within the Great Plains, as they are more susceptible to severe weather outbreaks and associated economic losses. Correlations between PBLH and LCL over the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan statistical area during the summer months of 2019-2023 will be discussed.
Angelica Kusen
Coupling of Chlorophyll-a Concentrations and Aerosol Optical Depth in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean and South China Sea (2019-2021)
Angelica Kusen
Air-sea interactions form a complex feedback mechanism, whereby aerosols impact physical and biogeochemical processes in marine environments, which, in turn, alter aerosol properties. One key indicator of these interactions is chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), a pigment common to all phytoplankton and a widely used proxy for primary productivity in marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton require soluble nutrients and trace metals for growth, which typically come from oceanic processes such as upwelling. These nutrients can also be supplied via wet and dry deposition, where atmospheric aerosols are removed from the atmosphere and deposited into the ocean. To explore this interaction, we analyze the spatial and temporal variations of satellite-derived chl-a and AOD, their correlations, and their relationship with wind patterns in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean and the South China Sea from 2019 to 2021, two regions with contrasting environmental conditions.
In the Subantarctic Southern Ocean, a positive correlation (r²= 0.26) between AOD and Chl-a was found, likely due to dust storms following Austrian wildfires. Winds deposit dust aerosols rich in nutrients, such as iron, to the iron-limited ocean, enhancing phytoplankton photosynthesis and increasing chl-a. In contrast, the South China Sea showed no notable correlation (r² = -0.02) between AOD and chl-a. Decreased emissions due to COVID-19 and stricter pollution controls likely reduced the total AOD load and shifted the composition of aerosols from anthropogenic to more natural sources.
These findings highlight the complex interrelationship between oceanic biological activity and the chemical composition of the atmosphere, emphasizing that atmospheric delivery of essential nutrients, such as iron and phosphorus, promotes phytoplankton growth. Finally, NASA’s recently launched PACE mission will contribute observations of phytoplankton community composition at unprecedented scale, possibly enabling attribution of AOD levels to particular groups of phytoplankton.
Chris Hautman
Estimating CO₂ Emission from Rocket Plumes Using in Situ Data from Low Earth Atmosphere
Chris Hautman
Rocket emissions in the lower atmosphere are becoming an increasing environmental concern as space exploration and commercial satellite launches have increased exponentially in recent years. Rocket plumes are one of the few known sources of anthropogenic emissions directly into the upper atmosphere. Emissions in the lower atmosphere may also be of interest due to their impacts on human health and the environment, in particular, ground level pollutants transported over wildlife protected zones, such as the Everglades, or population centers near launch sites. While rockets are a known source of atmospheric pollution, the study of rocket exhaust is an ongoing task. Rocket exhaust can have a variety of compositions depending on the type of engine, the propellants used, including fuels, oxidizers, and monopropellants, the stoichiometry of the combustion itself also plays a role. In addition, there has been increasing research into compounds being vaporized in atmospheric reentry. These emissions, while relatively minimal compared to other methods of travel, pose an increasing threat to atmospheric stability and environmental health with the increase in human space activity. This study attempts to create a method for estimating the total amount of carbon dioxide released by the first stage of a rocket launch relative to the mass flow of RP-1, a highly refined kerosene (C₁₂H₂₆)), and liquid oxygen (LOX) propellants. Particularly, this study will focus on relating in situ CO₂ emission data from a Delta II rocket launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base on April 15, 1999, to CO₂ emissions from popular modern rockets, such as the Falcon 9 (SpaceX) and Soyuz variants (Russia). The findings indicate that the CO₂ density of any RP-1/LOX rocket is 6.9E-7 times the mass flow of the sum of all engines on the first stage. The total mass of CO₂ emitted can be further estimated by modeling the volume of the plume as cylindrical. Therefore, the total mass can be calculated as a function of mass flow and first stage main engine cutoff. Future CO₂ emissions on an annual basis are calculated based on these estimations and anticipated increases in launch frequency.
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Last Updated Nov 22, 2024 Related Terms
General Explore More
8 min read SARP East 2024 Ocean Remote Sensing Group
Article 21 mins ago 10 min read SARP East 2024 Hydroecology Group
Article 21 mins ago 11 min read SARP East 2024 Terrestrial Fluxes Group
Article 22 mins ago View the full article
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