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NASA Asteroid Experts Create Hypothetical Impact Scenario for Exercise


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Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)

This artist’s concept depicts an asteroid drifting through space
This artist’s concept depicts an asteroid drifting through space. Many such objects frequently pass Earth. To help prepare for the discovery of one with a chance of impacting our planet, NASA leads regular exercises to figure out how the international community could respond to such a threat.
NASA/JPL-Caltech

The fifth Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise focused on an asteroid impact scenario designed by NASA JPL’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.

A large asteroid impacting Earth is highly unlikely for the foreseeable future. But because the damage from such an event could be great, NASA leads hypothetical asteroid impact “tabletop” exercises every two years with experts and decision-makers from federal and international agencies to address the many uncertainties of an impact scenario. The most recent exercise took place this past April, with a preliminary report being issued on June 20.

Making such a scenario realistic and useful for all involved is no small task. Scientists from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, which specializes in the tracking and orbital determination of asteroids and comets and finding out if any are hazards to Earth, have played a major role in designing these exercises since the first 11 years ago.

“These hypothetical scenarios are complex and take significant effort to design, so our purpose is to make them useful and challenging for exercise participants and decision-makers to hone their processes and procedures to quickly come to a plan of action while addressing gaps in the planetary defense community’s knowledge,” said JPL’s Paul Chodas, the director of CNEOS.

The Impact Scenario

This year’s scenario: A hypothetical asteroid, possibly several hundred yards across, has been discovered, with an estimated 72% chance of impacting Earth in 14 years. Potential impact locations include heavily populated areas in North America, Southern Europe, and North Africa, but there is still a 28% chance the asteroid will miss Earth. After several months of being tracked, the asteroid moves too close to the Sun, making further observations impossible for another seven months. Decision-makers must figure out what to do.

Leading the exercise was NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), the Federal Emergency Management Agency Response Directorate, and the Department of State Office of Space Affairs. Over the course of two days in April, participants gathered at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, which hosted the event, to consider the potential national and global responses to the scenario.

“This was a very successful tabletop exercise, with nearly 100 participants from U.S. government agencies and, for the first time, international planetary defense experts,” said Terik Daly from APL, who coordinated the exercise. “An asteroid impact would have severe national and international ramifications, so should this scenario play out for real, we’d need international collaboration.”

Reality Informs Fiction

In real life, CNEOS calculates the orbit of every known near-Earth object to provide assessments of future potential impact hazards in support of NASA’s planetary defense program. To make this scenario realistic, the CNEOS team simulated all the observations in the months leading up to the exercise and used orbital determination calculations to simulate the probability of impact.

“At this point in time, the impact was likely but not yet certain, and there were significant uncertainties in the object’s size and the impact location,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at JPL and CNEOS, who led the design of the asteroid’s orbit. “It was interesting to see how this affected the decision-makers’ choices and how the international community might respond to a real-world threat 14 years out.”

Options to Deflect

Preparation, planning, and decision-making have been key focal points of all five exercises that have taken place over the past 11 years. For instance, could a reconnaissance spacecraft be sent to the asteroid to gather additional data on its orbit and better determine its size and mass? Would it also be feasible to attempt deflecting the asteroid so that it would miss Earth? The viability of this method was recently demonstrated by NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which impacted the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos on Sept. 26, 2022, slightly changing its trajectory. Other methods of deflection have also been considered during the exercises.

But any deflection or reconnaissance mission would need many years of preparation, requiring the use of advanced observatories capable of finding hazardous asteroids as early as possible. NASA’s Near-Earth Object Surveyor, or NEO Surveyor, is one such observatory. Managed by JPL and planned for launch in late 2027, the infrared space telescope will detect light and dark asteroids, including those that orbit near the Sun. In doing so, NEO Surveyor will support PDCO’s objectives to discover any hazardous asteroids as early as possible so that there would be more time to launch a deflection mission to potential threats.  

To find out the outcome of the exercise, read NASA’s preliminary summary.

For more information about CNEOS, visit:

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/

News Media Contacts

Ian J. O’Neill
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-2649
ian.j.oneill@jpl.nasa.gov

Karen Fox / Charles Blue
NASA Headquarters
202-358-1600 / 202-802-5345
karen.c.fox@nasa.gov / charles.e.blue@nasa.gov

2024-094

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      Last Updated Aug 13, 2025 EditorJim BankeContactDiana Fitzgeralddiana.r.fitzgerald@nasa.govLocationNASA Langley Research Center Related Terms
      Aeronautics Advanced Air Mobility Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Drones & You Flight Demos Capabilities Integrated Aviation Systems Program Langley Research Center NASA Aircraft Transformational Tools Technologies Transformative Aeronautics Concepts Program View the full article
    • By NASA
      National Institute of Aerospace NASA is calling on the next generation of collegiate innovators to imagine bold new concepts l pushing the boundaries of human exploration on the Moon, Mars, and beyond through the agency’s 2026 NASA Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts – Academic Linkage (RASC-AL) competition.  
      The RASC-AL challenge fuels innovation for aerospace systems concepts, analogs, and technology prototyping by bridging gaps through university engagement with NASA and industry. The competition is seeking U.S.-based undergraduate and graduate-level teams and their faculty advisors to develop new concepts to improve our ability to operate on the Moon and Mars. This year’s themes range from developing systems and technologies to support exploration of the lunar surface, to enhancing humanity’s ability to operate and return data from the surface of Mars.  
      “This competition is a unique opportunity for university students to play a role in the future of space innovation,” said Dan Mazanek, assistant branch head of NASA’s Exploration Space Mission Analysis Branch at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton Virginia. “The RASC-AL challenge fuels creativity and empowers students to explore what’s possible. We’re excited for another year of RASC-AL and fresh ideas coming our way.”  
      Interested and eligible teams are invited to propose groundbreaking solutions and systems approaches that redefine how humans live and explore in deep space with relation to one of the following themes:  
      Communications, Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Architectures for Mars Surface Operations  Lunar Surface Power and Power Management and Distribution Architectures   Lunar Sample Return Concept  Lunar Technology Demonstrations Leveraging Common Infrastructure   Teams should express their intent to participate by submitting a non-binding notice of intent by Monday Oct. 13. Teams who submit a notice will be invited to a question-and-answer session with NASA subject matter experts on Monday Oct. 27.  
      The proposals, due Monday Feb. 23, 2026, are required to be seven-to-nine pages with an accompanying two-to-three-minute video. Proposals should demonstrate innovative solutions with original engineering and analysis in response to one of the four 2026 RASC-AL themes. Each team’s response should address novel and robust technologies, capabilities, and operational models that support expanding human’s ability to thrive beyond Earth. 
      Based on review of the team proposal and video submissions, in March, up to 14 teams will be selected to advance to the final phase of the competition – writing a technical paper, creating a technical poster, and presenting their concepts to a panel of NASA and industry experts in a competitive design review at the 2026 RASC-AL Forum in Cocoa Beach, Florida, beginning Monday June 1, 2026. 
      “The RASC-AL challenge enables students to think like NASA engineers—and in doing so, they often become the engineers who will carry NASA forward,” said Dr. Christopher Jones, RASC-AL program sponsor and Chief Technologist for the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate at NASA Langley. “The concepts they develop for this year’s competition will help inform our future strategies.”  
      Each finalist team will receive a $7,000 stipend to facilitate their full participation in the 2026 RASC-AL competition, and the top two overall winning teams will each be awarded an additional $7,000 cash prize as well as an invitation to attend and present their concept at an aerospace conference later in 2026. 
      The 2026 NASA RASC-AL competition is administered by the National Institute of Aerospace on behalf of NASA. The RASC-AL competition is sponsored by the agency’s Strategy and Architecture Office in the Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters, the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), and the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate at NASA Langley. The NASA Tournament Lab, part of the Prizes, Challenges, and Crowdsourcing Program in STMD, manages the challenge. 
      For more information about the RASC-AL competition, including eligibility and submission guidelines, visit: https://rascal.nianet.org/. 
      View the full article
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